** WTPQ20 BABJ 301800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 301800 UTC 00HR 16.9N 118.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 16.9N 114.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 16.7N 111.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 16.5N 109.2E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 301800UTC 16.9N 118.1E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 311800UTC 17.1N 115.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 011800UTC 16.9N 113.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 021800UTC 17.2N 111.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 301800 *** WARNING 301800. WARNING VALID 311800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 16.9N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 17.1N 115.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 16.9N 113.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 17.2N 111.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 301800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 301800UTC 16.9N 118.1E MOVEMENT W 4KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 311800UTC 17.0N 115.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT 48HR POSITION 011800UTC 16.8N 113.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 021800UTC 17.1N 111.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 301945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301800 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 301945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301800 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 118.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 118.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.3N 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 17.6N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.5N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.3N 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 16.8N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.9N 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.1N 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 117.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.// BT #0001 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 302100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 302100 UTC 00HR 17.1N 117.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 17.3N 115.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 17.1N 112.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 16.9N 110.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 302100 *** WARNING 302100. WARNING VALID 312100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 17.1N 118.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 17.1N 115.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 302100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 302100UTC 17.1N 118.0E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 312100UTC 17.1N 115.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 011800UTC 16.9N 113.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 021800UTC 17.2N 111.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 301800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 1800 30 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMAROM)(0619)WAS LOCATED BASED ON RADAR,SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 311800 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 011800 ONE FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 301800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 1800 30 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) WAS LOCATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.8N 117.8E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUTH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 33MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 311800 16.3N 114.7E AND AT 011800 15.6N 112.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTSS20 VHHH 302245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 302100 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 302245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 302100 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.