** WTPQ20 BABJ 291800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 291800 UTC 00HR 16.7N 121.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.2N 117.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 16.8N 113.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.2N 110.7E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 291800 *** WARNING 291800. WARNING VALID 301800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 935 HPA AT 16.7N 121.3E LUZON MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 16.6N 117.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 16.6N 115.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 16.8N 113.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 291800UTC 16.7N 121.3E GOOD MOVE W 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 301800UTC 16.6N 117.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 311800UTC 16.6N 115.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 011800UTC 16.8N 113.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 291800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 291800UTC 16.7N 121.3E MOVEMENT W 12KT PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 301800UTC 16.9N 118.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 311800UTC 16.9N 115.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 011800UTC 16.8N 113.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 291945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291800 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 292100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 121.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 121.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.1N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.3N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.3N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 17.2N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.8N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 16.3N 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.6N 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 120.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST- WARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291352Z TRMM TMI IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 29/13Z NEAR 16.6N 122.3E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 292100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 292100 UTC 00HR 16.8N 120.8E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.2N 116.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 16.9N 113.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.3N 110.7E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 292100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 292100UTC 16.8N 120.8E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 302100UTC 16.5N 117.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 311800UTC 16.6N 115.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 011800UTC 16.8N 113.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 292100 *** WARNING 292100. WARNING VALID 302100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 16.8N 120.8E LUZON MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 16.5N 117.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 291800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 29 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.5N 121.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 49MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301800 15.8N 117.9E AT 311800 13.8N 115.0E AND AT 011800 11.5N 112.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH20 RPMM 291800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 29 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON)(0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR,SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETES RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301800 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE EAST AT 311800 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 011800 ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTSS20 VHHH 292245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 292100 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 292245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 292100 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.