** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 291200 UTC 00HR 16.5N 122.6E 915HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.4N 118.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 16.9N 115.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.4N 112.4E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 291200UTC 16.5N 122.6E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 301200UTC 16.7N 118.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 311200UTC 16.5N 116.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 011200UTC 16.5N 113.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 291200 *** WARNING 291200. WARNING VALID 301200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 910 HPA AT 16.5N 122.6E EAST OF LUZON MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 16.7N 118.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 16.5N 116.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 16.5N 113.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 291345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291200 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (117.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 291500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 122.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 122.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.9N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.2N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.3N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 17.2N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.8N 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 16.3N 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.7N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 122.0E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 291500 UTC 00HR 16.6N 121.8E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 291500UTC 16.6N 121.8E GOOD MOVE W 12KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 301500UTC 16.6N 118.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 311200UTC 16.5N 116.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 011200UTC 16.5N 113.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 291500 *** WARNING 291500. WARNING VALID 301500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 925 HPA AT 16.6N 121.8E LUZON MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 16.6N 118.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 291200Z *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 29 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.5N 122.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 54MPS NEAR THE CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301200 16.2N 118.5E AT 311200 14.5N 116.0E AND AT 011200 12.4N 114.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 291700 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.10.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE MODEL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291700 ** WTPH20 RPMM 291200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 29 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON)(0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WESTNORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE FOUR METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301200 ONE SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE EIGTH POINT FIVE EAST AT 311200 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 011200 ONE TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 291645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291500 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.