** WTIN20 DEMS 290600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL WHICH LAY CENTRED AT 0830 HOURS IST AT LAT.14.5 DEG N LONG.80.5 DEG E ABOUT 50 KMS EAST OF NELLORE IN SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS ALONG THE COAST.IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN BAPTALA AND KAKINADA BY TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH-WEST AND ADJOINING WEST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL.CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 290600UTC 16.3N 123.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 300600UTC 17.4N 120.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 310600UTC 17.2N 118.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 010600UTC 17.3N 115.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 290600 *** WARNING 290600. WARNING VALID 300600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 910 HPA AT 16.3N 123.6E EAST OF LUZON MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.4N 120.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 17.2N 118.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 17.3N 115.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC 00HR 16.3N 123.5E 915HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 119.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 17.3N 117.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 17.0N 114.8E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 290600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 290600UTC 16.3N 123.6E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 910HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 300600UTC 17.3N 120.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT 48HR POSITION 310600UTC 17.1N 117.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 010600UTC 17.1N 115.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 290745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290600 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310600 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 011 UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 22W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 123.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 123.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.8N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.3N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.4N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.3N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.8N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 16.0N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 14.8N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 123.0E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 290900 UTC 00HR 16.4N 123.1E 915HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.4N 119.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 17.3N 116.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.8N 113.7E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 290900 *** WARNING 290900. WARNING VALID 300900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 910 HPA AT 16.4N 123.1E EAST OF LUZON MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 17.2N 120.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 290900UTC 16.4N 123.1E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 300900UTC 17.2N 120.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 310600UTC 17.2N 118.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 010600UTC 17.3N 115.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH RPLL 290600 *** T T T WARNING 10 AT 0600 29 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.3N 123.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NW AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WNDS 54MPS NEAR NTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300600 16.5N 119.3E AT 310600 14.5N 115.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 VHHH 291045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290900 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTPH20 RPMM 290600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0600 29 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIFTY FOUR METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300600 ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST AT 310600 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTIO21 PGTW 291130 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/291121ZOCT2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 80.3E TO 18.1N 81.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 290830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 80.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 80.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 80.6E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE INDIAN COAST. A 290817Z AMSRE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS NOW OVER WATER WITH A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IMPROVED STORM STRUCTURE, AND OVER-WATER POSITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 301130Z.//