** WTJP21 RJTD 290000 *** WARNING 290000. WARNING VALID 300000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 920 HPA AT 16.0N 124.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 17.5N 122.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 17.7N 119.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 17.1N 117.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 290000UTC 16.0N 124.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 300000UTC 17.5N 122.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 310000UTC 17.7N 119.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 010000UTC 17.1N 117.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 16.0N 124.7E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.7N 121.1E 945HPA 45M/S P+48HR 17.6N 118.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 17.1N 115.3E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 290145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY. AT 290000 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 124.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 124.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.7N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.4N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.7N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 17.6N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.9N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.8N 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 14.9N 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 124.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 282358Z SSMIS IMAGE AND RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS AN 18 NM ROUND EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 290300 UTC 00HR 16.2N 124.2E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 290300UTC 16.2N 124.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 910HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 300300UTC 17.5N 122.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 310000UTC 17.7N 119.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 010000UTC 17.1N 117.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 290300 *** WARNING 290300. WARNING VALID 300300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 910 HPA AT 16.2N 124.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 17.5N 122.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 290000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0000 29 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 16.0N 124.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENO- NENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 49MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300000 16.9N 121.1E AT 310000 16.3N 117.6E AND AT 010000 14.3N 114.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 VHHH 290445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290300 UTC, TYPHOON CIMARON (0619) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 280 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 290507 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.10.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290507