** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 15.6N 125.7E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.2N 122.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 17.4N 118.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 16.7N 115.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 281800 *** WARNING 281800. WARNING VALID 291800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 950 HPA AT 15.7N 125.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 17.2N 123.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 17.8N 120.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 17.1N 118.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 281800UTC 15.7N 125.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 291800UTC 17.2N 123.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 301800UTC 17.8N 120.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 311800UTC 17.1N 118.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 281800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 281800UTC 15.7N 125.7E MOVEMENT WNW 7KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 291800UTC 16.8N 123.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 87KT 48HR POSITION 301800UTC 17.5N 120.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 311800UTC 17.1N 118.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 125.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 125.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.3N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 17.2N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.6N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.7N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 17.2N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.1N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.8N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 125.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 281448Z TRMM TMI IMAGE AND RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS A 20 NM RAGGED EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 282100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTC 00HR 15.9N 125.2E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 121.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 17.6N 118.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 17.0N 115.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 281800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 1800 28 OCTOBER (CIMARON)(0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291800 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST AT 301800 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 282100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 282100UTC 15.9N 125.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 292100UTC 17.4N 123.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 301800UTC 17.8N 120.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 311800UTC 17.1N 118.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 282100 *** WARNING 282100. WARNING VALID 292100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 940 HPA AT 15.9N 125.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 17.4N 123.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=