** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 281200 UTC 00HR 15.3N 126.4E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 290KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.5N 123.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 16.9N 120.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 16.9N 116.9E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 281200 *** WARNING 281200. WARNING VALID 291200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 965 HPA AT 15.3N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 16.5N 124.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 17.7N 121.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 17.7N 118.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 281200UTC 15.3N 126.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 291200UTC 16.5N 124.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 301200UTC 17.7N 121.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 311200UTC 17.7N 118.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.1N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.9N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.5N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.8N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 17.4N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.4N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.3N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 125.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 281200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 1200 28 OCTOBER (CIMARON)(0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOME- METERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291200 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE EAST AT 301200 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 311200 ONE FIVE POINT NINENORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 281500UTC 15.5N 126.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 291500UTC 16.6N 123.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 301200UTC 17.7N 121.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 311200UTC 17.7N 118.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 281500 *** WARNING 281500. WARNING VALID 291500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 960 HPA AT 15.5N 126.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 16.6N 123.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 281200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 1200 28 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.2N 126.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 39MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291200 15.8N 124.1E AT 301200 16.0N 121.1E AND AT 311200 15.9N 118.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 281655 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.10.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281655