** WTIN20 DEMS 280607 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH WEST BAY, SOUTH-WEST AND ADJOINING WEST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 280600 *** WARNING 280600. WARNING VALID 290600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA AT 14.9N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 16.1N 124.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.2N 121.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 17.0N 118.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 280600UTC 14.9N 127.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 290600UTC 16.1N 124.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 300600UTC 17.2N 121.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 310600UTC 17.0N 118.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 280600 UTC 00HR 14.9N 127.2E 975HPA 35M/S 30KTS 230KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 123.5E 965HPA 40M/S P+48HR 16.4N 120.6E 955HPA 45M/S P+72HR 16.2N 117.1E 955HPA 45M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 280600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 280600UTC 14.9N 127.2E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 290600UTC 16.0N 124.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 300600UTC 16.9N 121.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 310600UTC 16.9N 118.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 127.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 127.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.8N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.5N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.9N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.9N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.0N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.4N 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.5N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 126.8E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 127.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 127.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.8N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.5N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.9N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.9N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 17.0N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.4N 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.5N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 126.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 280600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 06 AT 0600 28 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 290600 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE EAST AT 300600 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST AND AT 310600 ONE SIX POINT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 280900UTC 15.2N 126.8E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 290900UTC 16.3N 124.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 300600UTC 17.2N 121.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 310600UTC 17.0N 118.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 280900 *** WARNING 280900. WARNING VALID 290900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0619 CIMARON (0619) 975 HPA AT 15.2N 126.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 16.3N 124.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 280600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 06 AT 0600 OCTOBER TYPHOON (CIMARON) (0619) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.8N 127.2E FORECAST TOMOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 33MPS NEAR CNTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 290600 16.4N 123.9E AT 300600 17.1N 119.9E AND AT 310600 16.7N 116.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD