** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 14.0N 129.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 180KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.9N 126.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 15.9N 122.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 16.7N 118.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 271800 *** WARNING 271800. WARNING VALID 281800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 13.8N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 15.2N 126.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 16.5N 123.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 17.1N 119.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 13.8N 129.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 15.2N 126.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 291800UTC 16.5N 123.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 301800UTC 17.1N 119.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 271800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME STS 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 271800UTC 13.8N 129.2E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 281800UTC 15.3N 125.9E WITHIN 130NM PRES/VMAX 972HPA 62KT 48HR POSITION 291800UTC 16.4N 122.3E WITHIN 160NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT 72HR POSITION 301800UTC 16.8N 118.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ23 KNHC 272014 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.1N 106.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 108.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.8N 109.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 105.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 272014 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 115 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AT THIS POINT... SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS SOME STABLE AIR INTRUSION SEEM TO BE HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THIS MORNING'S 1250Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED NOTHING STRONGER THAN 25 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE EXPOSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT BASED OFF OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. SHIPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A QUICKER DEMISE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO FESTER AS A WEAK DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATION IN 2 DAYS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/6...WITHIN THE SHALLOW EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVES BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE MODELS DO INDICATE A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA/NORTHWEST MEXICO WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SHALLOW BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.6N 105.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.1N 106.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.8N 108.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.8N 109.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPH RPLL 271800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT1800 27 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM ( CIMARON) (0619) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT3ELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281800 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST AT 291800 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST AND AT 301800 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WETHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPH20 RPMM 271800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 04 AT 1800 27 OCTOBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CIMARON)(0619) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281800 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST AT 291800 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST AND AT 301800 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 272100 *** WARNING 272100. WARNING VALID 282100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 985 HPA AT 14.1N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 15.7N 126.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 14.1N 128.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 15.7N 126.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 291800UTC 16.5N 123.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 301800UTC 17.1N 119.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT =