** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC 00HR 13.2N 130.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.9N 126.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 16.0N 122.7E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 16.8N 118.5E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 271200 *** WARNING 271200. WARNING VALID 281200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 992 HPA AT 13.0N 130.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 14.2N 126.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 15.8N 123.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 16.2N 119.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 271200UTC 13.0N 130.3E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 281200UTC 14.2N 126.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 291200UTC 15.8N 123.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 301200UTC 16.2N 119.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 271500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 14.0N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 14.7N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.3N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.8N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 15.8N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 14.4N 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 129.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 271433 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 105.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 271437 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006 LATE-NIGHT SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXPOSED ABOUT 90 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THE REASON FOR THIS IS UNCLEAR...AS SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY 10-15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE CYCLONE...AND PERHAPS THIS HAS HELPED DRY THE SYSTEM UP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE CENTER MOVED ALMOST DUE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 225/4. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING LOW/ MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD...WITH THE BAM MODELS SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE RE-LOCATION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. THE PARTING OF THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION REQUIRES A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL NOW CALLS FOR PROLONGED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE OTHER AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BEFORE DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PERSIST AS A WEAK DEPRESSION FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATION. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.8N 105.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W 25 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W 25 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN31 PHNC 271600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 105.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 105.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 15.5N 106.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 15.0N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 14.7N 110.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 14.5N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 14.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 14.5N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 271600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 105.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 13.2N 129.8E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 14.4N 126.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 291200UTC 15.8N 123.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 301200UTC 16.2N 119.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 271500 *** WARNING 271500. WARNING VALID 281500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) 992 HPA AT 13.2N 129.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 14.4N 126.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 271200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT 1200 27 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (CIMARON) (0619) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281200 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST AT 291200 ONE FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 301200 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 271650 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 106.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.10.2006 15.8N 106.1W WEAK 00UTC 28.10.2006 15.6N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2006 15.0N 107.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2006 15.3N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2006 15.2N 110.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2006 16.4N 111.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2006 17.4N 111.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271650 ** WTPH RPLL 271200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT1200 27 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM ( CIMARON) (0619) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT3ELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SES WITHIN TWO FIV E ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE N INE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CE NTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVEZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281200 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ON E TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST AT 291200 ONE FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 301200 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WETHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA