** WTIN20 DEMS 270630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH-WEST AND ADJOINING WEST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 13.0N 131.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 14.3N 127.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 15.8N 124.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 16.7N 120.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 13.0N 131.0E POOR MOVE W 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 14.3N 127.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 290600UTC 15.8N 124.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 300600UTC 16.7N 120.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 270600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0619 CIMARON ANALYSIS POSITION 270600UTC 13.0N 131.0E MOVEMENT W 12KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 280600UTC 14.6N 127.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT 48HR POSITION 290600UTC 15.7N 124.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 72HR POSITION 300600UTC 16.8N 120.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 13.0N 131.0E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 127.1E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 15.7N 124.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 16.7N 109.8E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CIMARON 0620 (0619) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 13.0N 131.0E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 127.1E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 15.7N 124.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 16.7N 119.8E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPZ43 KNHC 270832 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006 IF THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...YOU WOULD NEVER KNOW IT FROM THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT 0144Z. THIS PASS SHOWED A LOT OF LIGHT WINDS...A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS...AND PRECIOUS LITTLE ELSE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 0305Z SHOWED ALMOST NO STRUCTURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES. HOWEVER... THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ROTATION ALOFT AROUND THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION...SO IF THE CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AGAIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS SUB-ROSA...AND IS LOWERED TO 25 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE QUIKSCAT DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE. WHILE THERE ARE HINTS THAT WHATEVER SURFACE CENTER EXISTS MAY BE LAGGING BEHIND THE DEEP CONVECTION...I'LL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND THE ROTATION ALOFT FOR AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/8. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A TRACK A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND POOR DEFINITION OF THE WIND FIELD...THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING A CANDIDATE FOR EARLY DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE THE SAME. FACTORS FAVORING THIS SCENARIO INCLUDE LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS A LITTLE DRY...AND IF THESE FACTORS KEEP A LID ON THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN THE DEPRESSION COULD DISSIPATE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 16.6N 106.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.4N 107.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 109.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 15.7N 111.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 15.5N 113.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 15.5N 117.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 15.5N 121.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 270832 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 0900 UTC FRI OCT 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.4N 107.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.7N 111.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.5N 113.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 15.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 130.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 130.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 13.4N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 14.2N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.9N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.3N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.2N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 15.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.8N 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 130.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.// ** WTNC02 NWBB 251451 *** A: SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 019. B: STORM WARNING ISSUED THE 06/10/25 14:30 UTC. C: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" LOCATED 16,2 S 172,2 E AT 251200. - POSITION POOR. - CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 975 HPA. - TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 04 KT. D: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KT (GUSTS 90 KT) WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 46 KT (GUSTS 69 KT) WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 33 KT (GUSTS 50 KT) BETWEEN 40 AND 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. E: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTH WEST. CALEDONIA IS NOT CONCERNED. F: FORECAST : THE 06/10/26 0000 UTC : 16,8 S 172,1 E. THE 06/10/26 1200 UTC : 17,3 S 171,3 E. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED THE 252100 UTC.= ** WTNC02 NWBB 251451 *** A: SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 019. B: STORM WARNING ISSUED THE 06/10/25 14:30 UTC. C: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" LOCATED 16,2 S 172,2 E AT 251200. - POSITION POOR. - CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 975 HPA. - TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 04 KT. D: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KT (GUSTS 90 KT) WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 46 KT (GUSTS 69 KT) WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 33 KT (GUSTS 50 KT) BETWEEN 40 AND 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. E: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTH WEST. CALEDONIA IS NOT CONCERNED. F: FORECAST : THE 06/10/26 0000 UTC : 16,8 S 172,1 E. THE 06/10/26 1200 UTC : 17,3 S 171,3 E. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED THE 252100 UTC.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 270913 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST FRI OCT 27 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CIMARON MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CIMARON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 470 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU 570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP 965 MILES WEST OF GUAM 1040 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN TROPICAL STORM CIMARON IS MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CIMARON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM CIMARON. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTNC01 NWBB 251448 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 019. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 25/10/06 A 14:30 UTC. C: A 12:00 UTC LE 25/10/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "XAVIER" : - CENTREE PAR 16,2 SUD 172,2 EST. POSITION DOUTEUSE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-EST 04 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 60 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 90 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 10 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 40 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 40 ET 100 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "XAVIER" S'EST ENCORE AFFAIBLI AU COURS DE LA NUIT. IL EST DEVENU DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE ET CONTINUERA DE S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LES HEURES A VENIR. IL A INCURVE SA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD PUIS IL CONTINUERA VERS LE SUD SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN DEVENANT DEPRESSION TROPICALE FAIBLE. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 26/10/06 A 0000 UTC : 16,8 SUD 172,1 EST. LE 26/10/06 A 1200 UTC : 17,3 SUD 171,3 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 25/10/06 A 21:00 UTC.= ** WTNC01 NWBB 251448 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 019. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 25/10/06 A 14:30 UTC. C: A 12:00 UTC LE 25/10/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "XAVIER" : - CENTREE PAR 16,2 SUD 172,2 EST. POSITION DOUTEUSE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-EST 04 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 60 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 90 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 10 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 40 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 40 ET 100 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "XAVIER" S'EST ENCORE AFFAIBLI AU COURS DE LA NUIT. IL EST DEVENU DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE ET CONTINUERA DE S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LES HEURES A VENIR. IL A INCURVE SA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD PUIS IL CONTINUERA VERS LE SUD SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN DEVENANT DEPRESSION TROPICALE FAIBLE. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 26/10/06 A 0000 UTC : 16,8 SUD 172,1 EST. LE 26/10/06 A 1200 UTC : 17,3 SUD 171,3 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 25/10/06 A 21:00 UTC.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 271000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 106.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 106.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.4N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.7N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.5N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 15.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 15.5N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 271000Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 106.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0619 CIMARON (0619) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 12.9N 130.7E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 14.2N 127.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 290600UTC 15.8N 124.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 300600UTC 16.7N 120.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 270600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 02 AT 0600 27 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (CIMARON) (0619) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 280600 ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AND AT 300600 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 270600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 02 AT 0600 27 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM ( CIMARON) (0619) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DERPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MVOE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZEOR KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSTIONS AT 280600 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAT AT 290600 ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AND AT 300600 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA