** WTSR20 WSSS 261800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 270000UTC 13.2N 132.3E POOR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 280000UTC 14.5N 128.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 262100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261151Z OCT 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 133.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 133.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 13.0N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 13.3N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 13.8N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.3N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.4N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 133.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 261151Z OCT 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 261200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.2N 132.3E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 270121 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1130 AM GUAM LST FRI OCT 27 2006 ...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWLY FORMED WELL NORTHWEST OF PALAU... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 11 AM GUAM LST...0100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU 410 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 790 MILES WEST OF GUAM 870 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 11 AM POSITION...12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 133.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 270233 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 800 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH A LACK OF DEFINITIVE BANDING FEATURES... HAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON FUTURE INTENSIFICATION... WITH LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS BEING THE STRONGEST POSITIVE FACTORS. HOWEVER THE GFDL DOESN'T FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING AND INSTEAD DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BEYOND 90 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE GFDL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER THIS SEASON... THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A BIT FROM THE LAST PACKAGE... SHOWING A MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION RATE AND A LOWER PEAK INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE WEST TONIGHT AT ABOUT 7 KT BASED ON A 2212 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS RATHER LIMITED DUE TO MOST GLOBAL MODELS NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER... GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BUILD AND COULD FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS RIDGE REMAINING INTACT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON... BUT IS STILL TO THE NORTH OF MOST GUIDANCE AS WE'RE NOT READY TO TOTALLY BUY INTO A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN THE LONGER-RANGE... THE FORECAST IS SPED UP AND FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO MOST MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING THAN IN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE BAM MEDIUM/DEEP MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.9N 105.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.3N 108.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTPZ23 KNHC 270233 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 0300 UTC FRI OCT 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.6W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.6W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 105.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH ** WTPN31 PHNC 270400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 105.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 105.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 16.6N 106.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.3N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 16.0N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 270400Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 105.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 270334 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 22W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST FRI OCT 27 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 22W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU 495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP 880 MILES WEST OF GUAM 950 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN TROPICAL STORM 22W IS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 22W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 270300UTC 13.0N 131.5E POOR MOVE W 15KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 280300UTC 14.5N 127.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 270000 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0000 27 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCLAS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POISITONS AT 280000 ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST AT 290000 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 30000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 270535 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 105.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.10.2006 16.8N 105.4W WEAK 12UTC 27.10.2006 16.4N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2006 15.9N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2006 14.8N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2006 15.3N 112.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2006 15.1N 113.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.10.2006 15.5N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270535