** WTPQ20 RJTD 261800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 261800UTC 12.5N 133.6E POOR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 271800UTC 13.4N 129.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPZ43 KNHC 262032 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 200 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING RAIN BANDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL AS A VERY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT DUE TO THE RATHER LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS BOTH INDICATE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND WITH A FORECAST MOTION OVER SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 28C. THE GFDL SUGGESTS A WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3 WHICH MIGHT BE DUE THERMODYNAMIC INFLUENCES. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AND THE GFDL...INDICATE A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS FORECAST A MORE PRONOUNCED BUILDING OF THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE EARLIER RUNS. THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND OF THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST... TOWARD THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED OFF OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.0N 104.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.9N 105.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 107.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.1N 111.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 262032 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 2100 UTC THU OCT 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 104.7W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 104.7W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 105.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.6N 107.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.1N 111.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 104.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 262100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 262100UTC 12.8N 133.1E POOR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 272100UTC 13.9N 129.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT =