** WTSR20 WSSS 260600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 261200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 261200UTC 11.9N 134.9E POOR MOVE W 10KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 271200UTC 12.0N 131.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPZ23 KNHC 261435 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 1500 UTC THU OCT 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 104.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 104.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 103.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 104.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 261435 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 800 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2006 VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS IS NOW ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION... WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTH. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/8. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. BY 96 HR...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...LEAVING THE DEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO RE-BUILD WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 96 HR...LEAVING THE CYCLONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS AND TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE...AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE COULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST THROUGH 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY SLOW STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE SMALL INNER CORE THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER. AFTER 72 HR... THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GFS KEEPS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE TROUGH TO KEEP THE SHEAR LIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS FORECAST 20-25 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE UKMET FORECASTS A VERY UNFAVORABLE 40-60 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS TO FORECAST A SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 16.8N 104.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.1N 107.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 108.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.1N 110.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 112.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 31/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 261500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 261500UTC 12.2N 134.0E POOR MOVE W 12KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 271500UTC 12.0N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 261710 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 102.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.10.2006 16.6N 102.4W WEAK 00UTC 27.10.2006 17.0N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2006 16.3N 105.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2006 15.4N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2006 14.9N 107.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2006 15.3N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.6N 156.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.10.2006 9.6N 156.7W WEAK 00UTC 28.10.2006 10.7N 156.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2006 11.4N 157.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2006 12.9N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2006 16.6N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261710