** WTSR20 WSSS 251800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS11 NFFN 260000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 26/0045 UTC 2006 UTC. Depression 01F [997hPa] [former Tropical Cyclone XAVIER] was located near 14.8S 170.3E at 260000 UTC moving northwest 08 knots. Position good. Expect clockwise winds 30 to 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle, easing in the next 6 to 12 hours. This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Depression 01F [former Tropical Cyclone Xavier] unless the situation changes. ** WTPS11 NFFN 260000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 26/0045 UTC 2006 UTC. Depression 01F [997hPa] [former Tropical Cyclone XAVIER] was located near 14.8S 170.3E at 260000 UTC moving northwest 08 knots. Position good. Expect clockwise winds 30 to 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle, easing in the next 6 to 12 hours. This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Depression 01F [former Tropical Cyclone Xavier] unless the situation changes. ** WTPS11 NFFN 260000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 26/0045 UTC 2006 UTC. Depression 01F [997hPa] [former Tropical Cyclone XAVIER] was located near 14.8S 170.3E at 260000 UTC moving northwest 08 knots. Position good. Expect clockwise winds 30 to 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle, easing in the next 6 to 12 hours. This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Depression 01F [former Tropical Cyclone Xavier] unless the situation changes. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 260236 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 A NAKED SWIRL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF PAUL TONIGHT. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE BEEN PULLED NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. IF PAUL DOES NOT REGENERATE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO... PAUL WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF DUE NORTH FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.7N 108.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.8N 108.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 260236 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0300 UTC THU OCT 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 108.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 108.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.8N 108.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ32 KNHC 260237 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 ...PAUL WEAKENS JUST OFFSHORE OF WESTERN MEXICO... AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF PAUL ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...24.7 N...108.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT80 EGRR 260517 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 107.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2006 24.8N 107.7W WEAK 12UTC 26.10.2006 DISSIPATED THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260517