** WTPS01 NFFN 251800 *** GALE Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1907 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [987hPa] centre was located near 16.0 South 171.0 East at 251800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 171.0E at 251800 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 5 knots and expected to curve west. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to centre, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 120 miles in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 15.7S 170.1E at 260600 UTC and near 15.9S 168.8E at 261800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS01 NFFN 251800 *** GALE Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1907 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [987hPa] centre was located near 16.0 South 171.0 East at 251800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 171.0E at 251800 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 5 knots and expected to curve west. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to centre, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 120 miles in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 15.7S 170.1E at 260600 UTC and near 15.9S 168.8E at 261800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS11 NFFN 251800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/2001 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [987hPa] centre was located near 16.0 South 171.0 East at 251800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR with animation and recent TRMM/SSMI passes. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but expected to curve west. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 12 hours. Xavier has weakened rapidly under strengthening shear past 6 hours. Exposed llcc with convection sheared eastwards about 2 degrees. Dvorak analysis based on sheared pattern yielding a DT=1.5, MET=3.0 and PT=1.5, thus T2.5/3.0/W2.5/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. Cyclone is gradually turning westwards. Available global models generally agree with further weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 15.7S 170.1E mov W 05kt with 30kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 15.9S 168.8E mov W 06kt with 20kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 270600 UTC near 15.5S 167.2E mov W 08kt with 15kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 271800 UTC near 15.2S 165.7E mov W 07kt with 15kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 260200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 251800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/2001 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [987hPa] centre was located near 16.0 South 171.0 East at 251800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR with animation and recent TRMM/SSMI passes. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but expected to curve west. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 12 hours. Xavier has weakened rapidly under strengthening shear past 6 hours. Exposed llcc with convection sheared eastwards about 2 degrees. Dvorak analysis based on sheared pattern yielding a DT=1.5, MET=3.0 and PT=1.5, thus T2.5/3.0/W2.5/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. Cyclone is gradually turning westwards. Available global models generally agree with further weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 15.7S 170.1E mov W 05kt with 30kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 15.9S 168.8E mov W 06kt with 20kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 270600 UTC near 15.5S 167.2E mov W 08kt with 15kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 271800 UTC near 15.2S 165.7E mov W 07kt with 15kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 260200 UTC. ** WTPZ22 KNHC 252033 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 107.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 107.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 106.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 107.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 252033 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 AFTER TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE CENTER BECOMING MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COASTLINE AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED...PAUL OR ITS REMNANT COULD LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. IN ANY EVENT...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEGRADING STRUCTURE...THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY NOT MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH MUCH LONGER. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR RAPIDLY ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND. EVEN IN A WEAKENED STATE THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 24.0N 107.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 106.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ32 KNHC 252033 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 ...PAUL BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THE CENTER OF PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...24.0 N...107.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPS01 NFFN 252100 *** GALE Warning 020 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/2209 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [995hPa] centre was re-located near 15.0 South 170.7 East at 252100 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 15.0S 170.7E at 252100 UTC. Cyclone moving northwest at about 10 knots. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Forecast position near 14.0S 169.0E at 260900 UTC and near 13.1S 167.3E at 262100 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 019. ** WTPS01 NFFN 252100 *** GALE Warning 020 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/2209 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [995hPa] centre was re-located near 15.0 South 170.7 East at 252100 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 15.0S 170.7E at 252100 UTC. Cyclone moving northwest at about 10 knots. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Forecast position near 14.0S 169.0E at 260900 UTC and near 13.1S 167.3E at 262100 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 019. ** WTPS11 NFFN 252100 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/2230 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [995hPa] centre was re-located near 15 South 170.7 East at 252100 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS with animation and recent AMSU/SSMI passes. Cyclone moving northwest at about 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds of 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Latest visible images show exposed llcc moving northwest with isolated deep convection displaced more than 2 degrees to the east. Recent quikscat pass still has gales in the southeastern semicircle but system continues to weaken rapidly. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding a DT equal to or less than 1.0, MET=3.0 and PT=1.5, thus T2.0/3.0/W2.5/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. Cyclone is expected to steer northwest in response to low level southeasterlies prevailing across New Caledonia/southern Vanuatu in response to a building ridge from the south. Available global models generally agree with continued weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 260900 UTC near 14.0S 169.0E mov WNW 10kt with 25kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 262100 UTC near 13.1S 167.3E mov WNW 10kt with 20kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 270900 UTC near 12.4S 165.7E mov WNW 08kt with 15kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 272100 UTC near 11.8S 164.0E mov WNW 07kt with 15kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 260200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 252100 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/2230 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [995hPa] centre was re-located near 15 South 170.7 East at 252100 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS with animation and recent AMSU/SSMI passes. Cyclone moving northwest at about 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds of 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Latest visible images show exposed llcc moving northwest with isolated deep convection displaced more than 2 degrees to the east. Recent quikscat pass still has gales in the southeastern semicircle but system continues to weaken rapidly. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding a DT equal to or less than 1.0, MET=3.0 and PT=1.5, thus T2.0/3.0/W2.5/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. Cyclone is expected to steer northwest in response to low level southeasterlies prevailing across New Caledonia/southern Vanuatu in response to a building ridge from the south. Available global models generally agree with continued weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 260900 UTC near 14.0S 169.0E mov WNW 10kt with 25kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 262100 UTC near 13.1S 167.3E mov WNW 10kt with 20kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 270900 UTC near 12.4S 165.7E mov WNW 08kt with 15kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 272100 UTC near 11.8S 164.0E mov WNW 07kt with 15kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 260200 UTC. ** WTPZ32 KNHC 252250 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 ...PAUL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... WARNINGS LOWERED BUT RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES... AT 4 PM PDT...2300 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM PDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 180 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 400 PM PDT POSITION...24.4 N...108.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 252250 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2300 UTC WED OCT 25 2006 AT 4 PM PDT...2300 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 108.1W AT 25/2300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 108.1W AT 25/2300Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 252251 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO DOWNGRADE PAUL TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING... AND ADJUST THE TRACK FORECAST. PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 AT 7 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS OR SO AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2300Z 24.4N 108.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN