** WTSR20 WSSS 250600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS01 NFFN 251200 *** STORM Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1314 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [975hPa] centre was re-located near 16.0 South 171.9 East at 251200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 171.9E at 251200 UTC. Cyclone is moving south at about 03 knots but expected to gradually curve southwest and finally west. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to centre, decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 120 miles in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 17.1S 171.6E at 260000 UTC and near 17.2S 171.2E at 261200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS01 NFFN 251200 *** STORM Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1314 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [975hPa] centre was re-located near 16.0 South 171.9 East at 251200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 171.9E at 251200 UTC. Cyclone is moving south at about 03 knots but expected to gradually curve southwest and finally west. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to centre, decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 120 miles in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 17.1S 171.6E at 260000 UTC and near 17.2S 171.2E at 261200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS01 NFFN 251200 CCA *** STORM Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1316 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to 12-hr forrecast position... Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [975hPa] centre was re-located near 16.0 South 171.9 East at 251200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 171.9E at 251200 UTC. Cyclone is moving south at about 03 knots but expected to gradually curve southwest and finally west. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to centre, decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 120 miles in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 16.8S 171.9E at 260000 UTC and near 17.2S 171.2E at 261200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS01 NFFN 251200 CCA *** STORM Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1316 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to 12-hr forrecast position... Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [975hPa] centre was re-located near 16.0 South 171.9 East at 251200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 171.9E at 251200 UTC. Cyclone is moving south at about 03 knots but expected to gradually curve southwest and finally west. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to centre, decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 120 miles in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 16.8S 171.9E at 260000 UTC and near 17.2S 171.2E at 261200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS01 NFFN 251200 CCB *** STORM Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1320 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to forecast wind... Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [975hPa] centre was re-located near 16.0 South 171.9 East at 251200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 171.9E at 251200 UTC. Cyclone is moving south at about 03 knots but expected to gradually curve southwest and finally west. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to centre, decreasing to 40 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 120 miles in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 16.8S 171.9E at 260000 UTC and near 17.2S 171.2E at 261200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS01 NFFN 251200 CCB *** STORM Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1320 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to forecast wind... Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [975hPa] centre was re-located near 16.0 South 171.9 East at 251200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 171.9E at 251200 UTC. Cyclone is moving south at about 03 knots but expected to gradually curve southwest and finally west. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to centre, decreasing to 40 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 120 miles in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 16.8S 171.9E at 260000 UTC and near 17.2S 171.2E at 261200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS11 NFFN 251200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1351 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [975hPa] centre was re-located near 16.0 South 171.9 East at 251200 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south at about 03 knots but expected to gradually curve southwest. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 60 knots, decreasing to 40 knots in the next 12 hours. Xavier has weakened rapidly under strengthening shear past 6 hours. Convection sheared about 40nm to southeast from partly exposed llcc. Dvorak analysis based on sheared pattern yielding a DT=3.5, MET and PT=3.5, thus T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24hrs. Cyclone is expected to gradually turn towards southwest and eventually west-southwest. Available global models generally agree with this and further weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 16.8S 171.9E mov S 03kt with 40kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 17.2S 171.2E mov SSW 03kt with 25kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 270000 UTC near 17.4S 170.1E mov SW 03kt with 15kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 271200 UTC near 17.2S 168.4E mov WSW 05kt with 15kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 252000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 251200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/1351 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [975hPa] centre was re-located near 16.0 South 171.9 East at 251200 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south at about 03 knots but expected to gradually curve southwest. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 60 knots, decreasing to 40 knots in the next 12 hours. Xavier has weakened rapidly under strengthening shear past 6 hours. Convection sheared about 40nm to southeast from partly exposed llcc. Dvorak analysis based on sheared pattern yielding a DT=3.5, MET and PT=3.5, thus T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24hrs. Cyclone is expected to gradually turn towards southwest and eventually west-southwest. Available global models generally agree with this and further weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 16.8S 171.9E mov S 03kt with 40kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 17.2S 171.2E mov SSW 03kt with 25kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 270000 UTC near 17.4S 170.1E mov SW 03kt with 15kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 271200 UTC near 17.2S 168.4E mov WSW 05kt with 15kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 252000 UTC. ** WTPZ32 KNHC 251421 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 ...PAUL CLINGING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO... AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 155 MILES ...245 KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TAKING THE CENTER OF PAUL INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...23.0 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 251421 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1500 UTC WED OCT 25 2006 AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 108.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 108.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.9N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.6N 106.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 251421 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 WHILE PAUL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP PDAN INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS CLINGING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP. PAUL IS ALSO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...050/12...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PAUL IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA MEXICO...AND ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THAT AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.0N 108.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 23.9N 107.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 24.6N 106.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPS31 PGTW 251500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 172.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 172.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.0S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.5S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.1S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 172.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P IS NOW BEING STEERED IN THE LOW-TO- MID-TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF FIJI. THIS LOWER STEERING LAYER WILL SLOWLY MOVE TC 01P SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A REGION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 01P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN UNDER THE STRONG VWS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH NOGAPS BEING THE WESTERN- MOST OUTLIER AND WBAR BEING THE EASTERN-MOST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE BAMS AND WBAR AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.// ** WTNC01 NWBB 251448 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 019. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 25/10/06 A 14:30 UTC. C: A 12:00 UTC LE 25/10/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "XAVIER" : - CENTREE PAR 16,2 SUD 172,2 EST. POSITION DOUTEUSE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-EST 04 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 60 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 90 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 10 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 40 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 40 ET 100 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "XAVIER" S'EST ENCORE AFFAIBLI AU COURS DE LA NUIT. IL EST DEVENU DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE ET CONTINUERA DE S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LES HEURES A VENIR. IL A INCURVE SA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD PUIS IL CONTINUERA VERS LE SUD SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN DEVENANT DEPRESSION TROPICALE FAIBLE. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 26/10/06 A 0000 UTC : 16,8 SUD 172,1 EST. LE 26/10/06 A 1200 UTC : 17,3 SUD 171,3 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 25/10/06 A 21:00 UTC.= ** WTNC01 NWBB 251448 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 019. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 25/10/06 A 14:30 UTC. C: A 12:00 UTC LE 25/10/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "XAVIER" : - CENTREE PAR 16,2 SUD 172,2 EST. POSITION DOUTEUSE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-EST 04 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 60 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 90 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 10 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 40 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 40 ET 100 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "XAVIER" S'EST ENCORE AFFAIBLI AU COURS DE LA NUIT. IL EST DEVENU DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE ET CONTINUERA DE S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LES HEURES A VENIR. IL A INCURVE SA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD PUIS IL CONTINUERA VERS LE SUD SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN DEVENANT DEPRESSION TROPICALE FAIBLE. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 26/10/06 A 0000 UTC : 16,8 SUD 172,1 EST. LE 26/10/06 A 1200 UTC : 17,3 SUD 171,3 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 25/10/06 A 21:00 UTC.= ** WTNC01 NWBB 251448 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 019. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 25/10/06 A 14:30 UTC. C: A 12:00 UTC LE 25/10/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "XAVIER" : - CENTREE PAR 16,2 SUD 172,2 EST. POSITION DOUTEUSE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-EST 04 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 60 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 90 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 10 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 40 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 40 ET 100 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "XAVIER" S'EST ENCORE AFFAIBLI AU COURS DE LA NUIT. IL EST DEVENU DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE ET CONTINUERA DE S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LES HEURES A VENIR. IL A INCURVE SA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD PUIS IL CONTINUERA VERS LE SUD SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN DEVENANT DEPRESSION TROPICALE FAIBLE. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 26/10/06 A 0000 UTC : 16,8 SUD 172,1 EST. LE 26/10/06 A 1200 UTC : 17,3 SUD 171,3 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 25/10/06 A 21:00 UTC.= ** WTNC01 NWBB 251448 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 019. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 25/10/06 A 14:30 UTC. C: A 12:00 UTC LE 25/10/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "XAVIER" : - CENTREE PAR 16,2 SUD 172,2 EST. POSITION DOUTEUSE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-EST 04 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 60 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 90 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 10 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 40 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 40 ET 100 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "XAVIER" S'EST ENCORE AFFAIBLI AU COURS DE LA NUIT. IL EST DEVENU DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE ET CONTINUERA DE S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LES HEURES A VENIR. IL A INCURVE SA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD PUIS IL CONTINUERA VERS LE SUD SUD-OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES EN DEVENANT DEPRESSION TROPICALE FAIBLE. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 26/10/06 A 0000 UTC : 16,8 SUD 172,1 EST. LE 26/10/06 A 1200 UTC : 17,3 SUD 171,3 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 25/10/06 A 21:00 UTC.= ** WTNC02 NWBB 251451 *** A: SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 019. B: STORM WARNING ISSUED THE 06/10/25 14:30 UTC. C: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" LOCATED 16,2 S 172,2 E AT 251200. - POSITION POOR. - CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 975 HPA. - TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 04 KT. D: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KT (GUSTS 90 KT) WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 46 KT (GUSTS 69 KT) WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 33 KT (GUSTS 50 KT) BETWEEN 40 AND 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. E: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTH WEST. CALEDONIA IS NOT CONCERNED. F: FORECAST : THE 06/10/26 0000 UTC : 16,8 S 172,1 E. THE 06/10/26 1200 UTC : 17,3 S 171,3 E. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED THE 252100 UTC.= ** WTNC02 NWBB 251451 *** A: SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 019. B: STORM WARNING ISSUED THE 06/10/25 14:30 UTC. C: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" LOCATED 16,2 S 172,2 E AT 251200. - POSITION POOR. - CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 975 HPA. - TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 04 KT. D: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KT (GUSTS 90 KT) WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 46 KT (GUSTS 69 KT) WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 33 KT (GUSTS 50 KT) BETWEEN 40 AND 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. E: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTH WEST. CALEDONIA IS NOT CONCERNED. F: FORECAST : THE 06/10/26 0000 UTC : 16,8 S 172,1 E. THE 06/10/26 1200 UTC : 17,3 S 171,3 E. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED THE 252100 UTC.= ** WTNC02 NWBB 251451 *** A: SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 019. B: STORM WARNING ISSUED THE 06/10/25 14:30 UTC. C: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" LOCATED 16,2 S 172,2 E AT 251200. - POSITION POOR. - CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 975 HPA. - TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 04 KT. D: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KT (GUSTS 90 KT) WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 46 KT (GUSTS 69 KT) WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 33 KT (GUSTS 50 KT) BETWEEN 40 AND 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. E: TROPICAL CYCLONE "XAVIER" IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ITS TRACK WILL CURVE SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTH WEST. CALEDONIA IS NOT CONCERNED. F: FORECAST : THE 06/10/26 0000 UTC : 16,8 S 172,1 E. THE 06/10/26 1200 UTC : 17,3 S 171,3 E. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED THE 252100 UTC.= ** WTPZ32 KNHC 251744 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1100 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 ...PAUL ACCELERATING TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TAKING THE CENTER OF PAUL INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL PAUL MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...23.4 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTNT80 EGRR 251748 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 109.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2006 23.5N 109.3W WEAK 00UTC 26.10.2006 24.1N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2006 24.2N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2006 23.8N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2006 22.6N 108.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 8.4N 157.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2006 8.4N 157.1W WEAK 12UTC 26.10.2006 9.4N 156.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2006 9.5N 156.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.10.2006 9.5N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2006 10.3N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2006 11.3N 158.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2006 12.3N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2006 13.4N 160.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.5N 104.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2006 11.5N 104.3W WEAK 12UTC 26.10.2006 16.3N 103.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2006 23.8N 108.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.10.2006 33.6N 118.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251748