** WTIN20 DEMS 250607 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH-WEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG LAT. 10.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPS11 NFFN 250600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/0805 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [960hPa] centre was located near 16.2 South 172.1 East at 250600 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 09 knots but expected to gradually curve south and slow. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 75 knots, decreasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Xavier is weakening rapidly under strengthening shear and cooler SSTs. Outflow good to south and restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on Embedded centre in LG yielded a DT=4.0, MET=4.5, PT=3.5, thus T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24hrs. Cyclone is expected to move southwards under a north to northeast steering field. Availabe global models suggest a south then southwest turn with further weskening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 17.3S 172.4E mov S 06kt with 70kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 18.5S 172.4E mov S 08kt with 50kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 19.7S 172.3E mov S 06kt with 35kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 270600 UTC near 20.8S 171.2E mov SSW 06kt with 20kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 251400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 250600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/0805 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [960hPa] centre was located near 16.2 South 172.1 East at 250600 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 09 knots but expected to gradually curve south and slow. Cyclone weakening rapidly. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 75 knots, decreasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Xavier is weakening rapidly under strengthening shear and cooler SSTs. Outflow good to south and restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on Embedded centre in LG yielded a DT=4.0, MET=4.5, PT=3.5, thus T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24hrs. Cyclone is expected to move southwards under a north to northeast steering field. Availabe global models suggest a south then southwest turn with further weskening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 17.3S 172.4E mov S 06kt with 70kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 18.5S 172.4E mov S 08kt with 50kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 19.7S 172.3E mov S 06kt with 35kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 270600 UTC near 20.8S 171.2E mov SSW 06kt with 20kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 251400 UTC. ** WTPZ32 KNHC 250830 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 ...OUTER SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL AFFECTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 245 MILES ...390 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...109.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 250830 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 PAUL HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE YET DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A BIG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ASSUMING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL NOT PERSIST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF 50 TO 60 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPROACHING PAUL AND WITH MASSIVE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE... WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF 8 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS PAUL WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A WEAK SURFACE LOW LINGERING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WHILE THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES RACING EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CENTER OF PAUL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 21.8N 109.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 22.8N 108.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 106.5W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/0600Z 23.5N 105.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 250831 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0900 UTC WED OCT 25 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 109.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 109.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.8N 108.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 23.5N 106.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.5N 105.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 251000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 110.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 109.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.8N 108.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 23.3N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 23.5N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.5N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.// ** WTPZ32 KNHC 251155 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 500 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 ...PAUL PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA MEXICO...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING MAINLAND MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 MILES ...290 KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...22.8 N...109.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH