** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS11 NFFN 250000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/0147 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [945hPa] centre was located near 15.6 South 171.7 East at 250000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Cyclone weakening. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 85 knots, decreasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours. Xavier contiues to weaken rapidly. Outflow still good in southwest semicircle but weakening elsewhere. Current shear has increased to about 25 knots and Xavier is moving into increasing vertical shear. Dvorak analysis based on a curved band wrap of 1.05 gives a DT=4.0, MET=4.5, PT=4.0, thus T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24hrs. SST around 28C. Cyclone steering southeast due to mid level ridge to the east. A deep northerly wind flow building over the system is expected to curve Xavier's path southwards. Most global models have handled the system poorly. UKGC and TCLAPS are suggesting a turn towards the south in the next 12 to 24 hours with gradual weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 17.3S 172.6E mov SSE 10kt with 75kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 18.6S 172.6E mov S 08kt with 55kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 19.6S 171.8E mov SSW 06kt with 50kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 270000 UTC near 20.1S 170.6E mov SW 06kt with 40kt close to centre. On its current track the cyclone may cause damaging gale force winds during the next 24 to 48 hours over Efate, Shepherd Group, Eromango, Tanna, Aneityum and nearby smaller islands. Expect rain, occasionally heavy. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 250800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 250000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 25/0147 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [945hPa] centre was located near 15.6 South 171.7 East at 250000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Cyclone weakening. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 85 knots, decreasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours. Xavier contiues to weaken rapidly. Outflow still good in southwest semicircle but weakening elsewhere. Current shear has increased to about 25 knots and Xavier is moving into increasing vertical shear. Dvorak analysis based on a curved band wrap of 1.05 gives a DT=4.0, MET=4.5, PT=4.0, thus T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24hrs. SST around 28C. Cyclone steering southeast due to mid level ridge to the east. A deep northerly wind flow building over the system is expected to curve Xavier's path southwards. Most global models have handled the system poorly. UKGC and TCLAPS are suggesting a turn towards the south in the next 12 to 24 hours with gradual weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 17.3S 172.6E mov SSE 10kt with 75kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 18.6S 172.6E mov S 08kt with 55kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 19.6S 171.8E mov SSW 06kt with 50kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 270000 UTC near 20.1S 170.6E mov SW 06kt with 40kt close to centre. On its current track the cyclone may cause damaging gale force winds during the next 24 to 48 hours over Efate, Shepherd Group, Eromango, Tanna, Aneityum and nearby smaller islands. Expect rain, occasionally heavy. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 250800 UTC. ** WTPS31 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 171.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 171.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.7S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.9S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.8S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.4S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 171.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P CONTINUES TO TRACK BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER NEW ZEALAND. TC 01P HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS ENCOUNTERED A REGION OF MOD- ERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. A 241848Z SSMI PASS INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECT- ION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 01P IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM, REFLECTING A SHARP WESTWARD TURN INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WBAR (THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL SO FAR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS WHICH INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD TRACK. TC 01P WILL RAP- IDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.// ** WTPZ32 KNHC 250234 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO... AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...21.1 N...110.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 250234 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL IS PULSING AND HAS A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SIGNATURE. WHILE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT ABOUT 55 KT...THESE ARE LIKELY OVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY BASED ON EARLIER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND AMSU ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT. PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...DESPITE MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY WARM WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. PAUL IS MOVING AT 025/12. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE ADVECTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS PAUL BECOMES DECAPITATED BY THE STRONG SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ONLY NOGAPS MAINTAINS A ROBUST ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE PICKED UP BY DEEP-LAYERED FLOW AND HAS THE CYCLONE'S SURFACE CENTER MAKE LANDFALL. ALL REMAINING MODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE WATER. THE FORECAST TRACK...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAS THE DECAYING CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL JUST AT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PAUL'S SURFACE CENTER WILL NOT TOUCH LAND. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS BEING MAINTAINED UNTIL PAUL PASSES THE PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO IS DROPPED AS IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT PAUL WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE INTENSITY...EVEN IF IT DOES MAKE A LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 21.1N 110.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 109.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 22.6N 108.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.1N 107.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 23.6N 106.6W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 250235 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2006 AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 110.5W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 110.5W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 110.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.6N 108.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.1N 107.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.6N 106.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA ** WTPN31 PHNC 250400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 110.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.0N 109.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.6N 108.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.1N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.6N 106.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 19 FEET. AT 102500 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 654 NM WNW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.// ** WTPZ32 KNHC 250532 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...CENTER OF PAUL ABOUT TO PASS SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...21.5 N...110.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT80 EGRR 250533 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 111.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2006 21.5N 111.0W MODERATE 12UTC 25.10.2006 23.4N 109.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.10.2006 23.7N 108.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2006 23.5N 108.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2006 22.8N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2006 21.3N 107.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250533 ** WTIN20 DEMS 250650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH-WEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG LAT. 10.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)