** WTPS11 NFFN 241800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/2007 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 15.0 South 171.0 East at 241800 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Cyclone expected to weaken. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots, to 85 knots in the next 12 hours. Eye has disappeared and cloud tops have been warming for past six hours. Outflow still good in southwest semicircle but weakening elsewhere. Current shear has increased to about 25 knots and Xavier is moving into increasing vertical shear. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre in light grey shade gives a DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5, thus T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24hrs. SST around 28C. Cyclone steering southeast due to mid level ridge to the east and deep northwest wind flow building over the system. Most global models have handled the system poorly. UKGC and TCLAPS are suggesting a turn towards the south with gradual weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 16.8S 172.1E mov SSE 10kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 18.0S 172.4E mov S 08kt with 75kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 19.2S 172.1E mov SSW 06kt with 65kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 20.0S 170.9E mov SW 06kt with 55kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 250200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 241800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/2007 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 15.0 South 171.0 East at 241800 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Cyclone expected to weaken. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots, to 85 knots in the next 12 hours. Eye has disappeared and cloud tops have been warming for past six hours. Outflow still good in southwest semicircle but weakening elsewhere. Current shear has increased to about 25 knots and Xavier is moving into increasing vertical shear. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre in light grey shade gives a DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5, thus T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24hrs. SST around 28C. Cyclone steering southeast due to mid level ridge to the east and deep northwest wind flow building over the system. Most global models have handled the system poorly. UKGC and TCLAPS are suggesting a turn towards the south with gradual weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 16.8S 172.1E mov SSE 10kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 18.0S 172.4E mov S 08kt with 75kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 19.2S 172.1E mov SSW 06kt with 65kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 20.0S 170.9E mov SW 06kt with 55kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 250200 UTC. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 242034 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING PAUL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE NOW UP TO 999 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WHILE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. INDEED...PAUL COULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST. PAUL IS BEGINNING TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 020/12. THE CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OR VERY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BY 36 HOURS. WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION APPEARS REMOTE...THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...SOME OR ALL OF THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 20.3N 111.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 21.7N 110.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 109.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 24.0N 107.7W 25 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ32 KNHC 242034 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...PAUL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THESE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.3 N...111.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 242045 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2100 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THESE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.3W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.3W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 109.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.0N 107.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPN31 PHNC 242200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 111.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 111.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.7N 110.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.0N 109.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.0N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 24.5N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 21 FEET. AT 241800Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 685 NM WNW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 241800 *** GALE WARNING NO.02 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEAST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00AM TODAY 25 OCTOBER 2006 (VALID UNTIL THE NEXT WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY). THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEAST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SEABOARDS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND EASTERN LUZON. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER- STORMS. WINDS OF 40 TO 65KPH (22 TO 35KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHT OF 2.5 TO 5.0 METERS. MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN SEABOARDS OF EASTERN LUZON WILL LIEKWISE EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINSHWOERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS OF 15-45KPH 08 TO 24KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE MODE- RATE TO OCCASIONALLY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 0.5 TO 3.0 METERS. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE BIGGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST MODERATE TO HIGH WAVES. WATCH FORTHE NEXT UPDATA TO BE ISSEUD AT 5:00PM TODAY= ** WTPZ32 KNHC 242335 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 500 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...PAUL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THESE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN