** WTSR20 WSSS 240600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS11 NFFN 241200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/1334 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 14.4 South 170.1 East at 241200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 8 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots. Organisation steady. Cold onvective tops persisting despite some warming in recent imageries. Cloud-filled eye prevails. Outflow good to south but limited elsewhere. Significance of shear increasing. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=5.5, thus T5.0/6.0/D0.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south under a northeast steering field. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards the south with gradual weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 16.0S 170.5E mov SE 08kt with 95kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 17.2S 169.9E mov S 07kt with 90kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 17.9S 169.4E mov S 06kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 18.7S 168.2E mov SSW 06kt with 80kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 242000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 241200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/1334 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 14.4 South 170.1 East at 241200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 8 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots. Organisation steady. Cold onvective tops persisting despite some warming in recent imageries. Cloud-filled eye prevails. Outflow good to south but limited elsewhere. Significance of shear increasing. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=5.5, thus T5.0/6.0/D0.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south under a northeast steering field. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards the south with gradual weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 16.0S 170.5E mov SE 08kt with 95kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 17.2S 169.9E mov S 07kt with 90kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 17.9S 169.4E mov S 06kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 18.7S 168.2E mov SSW 06kt with 80kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 242000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 241200 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/1336 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to forecast time... Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 14.4 South 170.1 East at 241200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 8 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots. Organisation steady. Cold onvective tops persisting despite some warming in recent imageries. Cloud-filled eye prevails. Outflow good to south but limited elsewhere. Significance of shear increasing. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=5.5, thus T5.0/6.0/D0.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south under a northeast steering field. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards the south with gradual weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 16.0S 170.5E mov SE 08kt with 95kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 17.2S 169.9E mov S 07kt with 90kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 17.9S 169.4E mov S 06kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 18.7S 168.2E mov SSW 06kt with 80kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 242000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 241200 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/1336 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to forecast time... Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 14.4 South 170.1 East at 241200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 8 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots. Organisation steady. Cold onvective tops persisting despite some warming in recent imageries. Cloud-filled eye prevails. Outflow good to south but limited elsewhere. Significance of shear increasing. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=5.5, thus T5.0/6.0/D0.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south under a northeast steering field. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards the south with gradual weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 16.0S 170.5E mov SE 08kt with 95kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 17.2S 169.9E mov S 07kt with 90kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 17.9S 169.4E mov S 06kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 18.7S 168.2E mov SSW 06kt with 80kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 242000 UTC. ** WTPZ22 KNHC 241434 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1500 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. SOME OF THESE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 112.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 25SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 112.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 60SE 25SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ32 KNHC 241435 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. SOME OF THE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 470 MILES...750 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.9 N...112.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 241439 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 A RECENT AMSU PASS NEAR 1100 UTC INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS BECOME DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SEPARATED FROM THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. THIS REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...360/7...REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. SINCE PAUL IS QUICKLY BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POINTS THROUGH 48 HOURS ESSENTIALLY TAKING WHAT IS LEFT OF PAUL JUST SOUTH OF BAJA AND TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS AND SOME ADDITIONAL TRACK ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE...OR LACK THEREOF...AND THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. INDEED...PAUL COULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST. ALL WATCHES AND WARNING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...SOME OF THE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.9N 112.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 109.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPS31 PGTW 241500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 170.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 170.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.3S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.1S 171.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.1S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.1S 171.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 170.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF FIJI. THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY UNDER OFFSETTING INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 01P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM TAU 48 ONWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 241600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 014 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 17E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 112.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 112.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.2N 111.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.8N 110.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 24.0N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. AT 241200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 702 NM WNW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 241745 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 111.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.10.2006 19.2N 111.2W MODERATE 00UTC 25.10.2006 20.8N 110.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2006 21.9N 109.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2006 21.9N 108.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2006 22.6N 108.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2006 22.4N 108.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2006 21.9N 107.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2006 21.6N 107.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2006 21.3N 107.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2006 21.5N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2006 22.0N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.10.2006 23.4N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.10.2006 25.3N 108.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241745 ** WTPZ32 KNHC 241755 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...PAUL MOVING AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. SOME OF THE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 405 MILES...655 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF LA PAZ. PAUL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM TEACAPAN TO MAZATLAN AND CULIACAN...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...19.7 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH