** WTIN20 DEMS 240610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------- DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTOF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPS11 NFFN 240600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/0758 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 13.7 South 169.6 East at 240600 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve south in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots, increasing to 100 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation good with cold onvective tops persisting. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on W eye embedded in CMG surround gives a DT=5.5, MET=6.0, PT=6.0, thus T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south in the next 24 hours under a northeast steering field. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 24 to 36 hours before weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 14.4S 170.1E mov SE 05kt with 95kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 15.5S 170.1E mov S 05kt with 100kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 16.3S 169.7E mov SSW 05kt with 95kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 16.9S 168.9E mov SW 05kt with 85kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 241400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 240600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/0758 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 13.7 South 169.6 East at 240600 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve south in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots, increasing to 100 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation good with cold onvective tops persisting. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on W eye embedded in CMG surround gives a DT=5.5, MET=6.0, PT=6.0, thus T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south in the next 24 hours under a northeast steering field. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 24 to 36 hours before weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 14.4S 170.1E mov SE 05kt with 95kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 15.5S 170.1E mov S 05kt with 100kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 16.3S 169.7E mov SSW 05kt with 95kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 16.9S 168.9E mov SW 05kt with 85kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 241400 UTC. ** WTPZ32 KNHC 240831 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...PAUL FORECAST TO WEAKEN... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES ...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.6 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ42 KNHC 240831 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND PAUL NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING DETACHED. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE OUTSTANDING SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FOR QUITE SOMETIME. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS...AND THIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE. DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT SOCORRO ISLAND...NEAR THE HURRICANE...INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING AND WINDS ARE NOT INCREASING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED INCREASING SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 005 DEGREES AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. PAUL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING PAUL'S CIRCULATION NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS... AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 36 HOURS. IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF PAUL WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND THE RAPID DECOUPLING OF THE HURRICANE FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL NOW JOINS THE CLUB AND KEEPS A WEAKENING CYCLONE LINGERING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THE TIME PAUL APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.6N 111.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 107.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.0N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 240832 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0900 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006 AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 25SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ32 KNHC 240842 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...CORRECTION FOR TROPICAL STORM WACTH POINT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...PAUL FORECAST TO WEAKEN... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES ...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.6 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 240843 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0900 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006 ...CORRECTION FOR LOCATION OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 25SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ32 KNHC 240844 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...CORRECTION FOR TROPICAL STORM WACTH POINT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...PAUL FORECAST TO WEAKEN... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES ...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.6 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 111.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 111.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.0N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 24.0N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 26.0N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.// ** WTPZ32 KNHC 241151 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 500 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 ...PAUL NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES ...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA AND MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...18.8 N...111.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH