** WTSR20 WSSS 231800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS11 NFFN 240000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/0152 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [935hPa] centre was located near 13.1 South 169.0 East at 240000 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve south in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 90 knots, increasing to 95 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation generally steady with cold onvective tops surrounding the eye. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=6.0, thus T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 36 hours before weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 13.7S 169.4E mov S 07kt with 90kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 14.3S 169.1E mov SSW 08kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 15.1S 168.9E mov SSW 10kt with 95kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 16.0S 168.7E mov SSW 10kt with 95kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 240800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 240000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 24/0152 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [935hPa] centre was located near 13.1 South 169.0 East at 240000 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve south in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 90 knots, increasing to 95 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation generally steady with cold onvective tops surrounding the eye. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=6.0, thus T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 36 hours before weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 13.7S 169.4E mov S 07kt with 90kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 14.3S 169.1E mov SSW 08kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 15.1S 168.9E mov SSW 10kt with 95kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 16.0S 168.7E mov SSW 10kt with 95kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 240800 UTC. ** WTPZ22 KNHC 240234 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.7N 111.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.7N 109.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ32 KNHC 240235 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL MOVING NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING...SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES ...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES...830 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT PAUL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 240239 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 TWO AMSU OVERPASSES...AN AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND A WINDSAT OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 6 HR INDICATE THAT PAUL IS LOSING ORGANIZATION... WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ONSET OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR MAY BE OCCURRING BELOW THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CIRRUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE OBSERVED DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PAUL SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HR DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE GFDL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY CALLED FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL... NOW CALLS FOR PAUL TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM...AS DOES THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING...WITH PAUL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALL OF WHICH SHOWING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF PAUL PARTING COMPANY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH COULD CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY IN THE UKMET...WHICH HAS THE 500 MB CENTER WELL EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/6. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL PAUL HOLDS TOGETHER. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT PAUL WILL RETAIN SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...AND THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF 35N. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IF PAUL SHEARS APART AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY MEANDER OVER WATER AND NEVER MAKE LANDFALL. THE MOST EXTREME EXAMPLE OF THIS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THE UKMET...WHICH NEVER BRINGS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTH OF 20N. BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE... AND THUS INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 17.6N 111.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.7N 111.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.7N 109.1W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPS31 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 169.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 169.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.0S 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.2S 170.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.5S 170.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 18.0S 170.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 169.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01P HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 01P IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. TC 01P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST- WARD THROUGH TAU 24 BUT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AFTERWARDS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND STEER WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 01P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 111.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 111.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 18.7N 111.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.5N 110.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.7N 109.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 25.0N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 240400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 111.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 28 FEET. AT 102400 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 677 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 240532 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.10.2006 HURRICANE PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 111.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.10.2006 17.1N 111.7W WEAK 12UTC 24.10.2006 19.3N 111.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2006 19.3N 111.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2006 21.2N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2006 21.6N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2006 22.0N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2006 21.1N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2006 20.0N 110.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240532 ** WTPZ32 KNHC 240536 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1100 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL ON A WEAKENING TREND...HEADING TOWARD SOCORRO ISLAND... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES ...615 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 495 MILES...795 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL IS WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...28.30 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA