** WTPS11 NFFN 231800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/1922 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [945hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South 168.6 East at 231800 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 85 knots, increasing to 95 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation generally steady with cold onvective tops surrounding the eye. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0, thus T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but expected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 36 hours before weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 13.2S 168.9E mov S 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 13.8S 168.7E mov SSW 03kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.3S 167.6E mov SW 05kt with 95kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 15.1S 166.7E mov SW 08kt with 95kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 240200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 231800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/1922 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [945hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South 168.6 East at 231800 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 85 knots, increasing to 95 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation generally steady with cold onvective tops surrounding the eye. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0, thus T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but expected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 36 hours before weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 13.2S 168.9E mov S 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 13.8S 168.7E mov SSW 03kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.3S 167.6E mov SW 05kt with 95kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 15.1S 166.7E mov SW 08kt with 95kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 240200 UTC. ** WTPZ32 KNHC 232045 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL WEAKENING... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES ...680 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 232045 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2100 UTC MON OCT 23 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 111.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 232045 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR TOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE... ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE PAUL IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS INTERACTION HAS RESULTED IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. PAUL SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DEEP VORTEX UNTIL LANDFALL. CONVERSELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND THE SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.0N 111.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.1N 110.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.2N 108.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ32 KNHC 232338 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 500 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL MOVING NORTHWARD...SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES ...645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RECENT CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PAUL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN