** WTSR20 WSSS 230600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 231206 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1006 HPA POSITION: 9.2S / 50.3E (NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 00 UTC: 9.1S / 48.2E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 12 UTC: 9.0S / 46.5E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231206 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 1200 UTC : 9.2S / 50.3E (NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.1S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.9S/45.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 08.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/26 00 UTC: 08.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/10/26 12 UTC: 08.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT THIS TIME OF THE SEASON. LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 231206 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1006 HPA POSITION: 9.2S / 50.3E (NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 00 UTC: 9.1S / 48.2E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 12 UTC: 9.0S / 46.5E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 231206 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/1/20062007 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/10/2006 : 9.2S / 50.3E (NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST) 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1006 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: FAIBLE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 24/10/2006 00 UTC: 09.1S/48.2E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H: 24/10/2006 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.5E, VENT MAX=015KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 36H: 25/10/2006 00 UTC: 08.9S/45.0E, VENT MAX=015KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 48H: 25/10/2006 12 UTC: 08.8S/43.5E, VENT MAX=015KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 60H: 26/10/2006 00 UTC: 08.7S/42.0E, VENT MAX=015KT, SE DISSIPANT. 72H: 26/10/2006 12 UTC: 08.6S/41.0E, VENT MAX=015KT, SE DISSIPANT. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=1.5. LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, ET LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST COMPLETEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION RESIDUELLE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST FLUCTUANTE, ELLE DEMEURE ASSEZ CHAUDE ET LA PRESSION AU SOL EST ENCORE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE EN CE DEBUT DE SAISON. DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF REINTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 231206 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 009/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1006 HPA POSITION: 9.2S / 50.3E (NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25/30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/10/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.1S / 48.2E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 24/10/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.0S / 46.5E, VENT MAX = 15 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST COMPLETEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE NORD-OUEST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI S'ETEND LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF REINTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231206 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 1200 UTC : 9.2S / 50.3E (NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.1S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.9S/45.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 08.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/26 00 UTC: 08.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/10/26 12 UTC: 08.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT THIS TIME OF THE SEASON. LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 231206 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 1200 UTC : 9.2S / 50.3E (NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.1S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.9S/45.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 08.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/26 00 UTC: 08.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/10/26 12 UTC: 08.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT THIS TIME OF THE SEASON. LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 231206 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 009/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1006 HPA POSITION: 9.2S / 50.3E (NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25/30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/10/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.1S / 48.2E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 24/10/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.0S / 46.5E, VENT MAX = 15 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST COMPLETEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE NORD-OUEST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI S'ETEND LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF REINTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 231206 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1006 HPA POSITION: 9.2S / 50.3E (NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 00 UTC: 9.1S / 48.2E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 12 UTC: 9.0S / 46.5E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. . ** WTPS11 NFFN 231200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/1343 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [950hPa] centre was located near 12.5 South 168.5 East at 231200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation generally steady but tops cooled past 6 hours. Convective bands tightly wrapping around centre. Cloud-filled eye re-appeared at 231033Z imagery. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT of 5.0. MET and PT=5.0, thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but expected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification for at least the next 48 hours before weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 13.2S 169.1E mov SSE 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 13.9S 169.1E mov SSE 05kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 14.4S 168.5E mov S 03kt with 95kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 15.1S 167.6E mov SSW 03kt with 95kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 232000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 231200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/1343 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [950hPa] centre was located near 12.5 South 168.5 East at 231200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation generally steady but tops cooled past 6 hours. Convective bands tightly wrapping around centre. Cloud-filled eye re-appeared at 231033Z imagery. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT of 5.0. MET and PT=5.0, thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but expected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification for at least the next 48 hours before weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 13.2S 169.1E mov SSE 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 13.9S 169.1E mov SSE 05kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 14.4S 168.5E mov S 03kt with 95kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 15.1S 167.6E mov SSW 03kt with 95kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 232000 UTC. ** WTPS31 PGTW 231500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 168.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 168.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 13.6S 168.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 14.4S 168.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.3S 168.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.0S 168.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 168.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TC 01P HAS INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO AN IMPINGEMENT OF THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS THE DOMI- NANT OUTFLOW MECHANISM ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEMS RECENT INTENSIFI- CATION. MID-LEVEL RIDGING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 01P CONTIN- UES TO STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. BETWEEN TAU 24 TO TAU 36 RIDGING BUILDING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 01P WILL INDUCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND TAU 24 INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.// ** WTPZ42 KNHC 231429 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW DISPLAYS A DISTINCT EYE WITH VERY COLD SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0...OR 90 KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 95 KT BASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE PAUL WILL SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/4. BEYOND 12 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH ACCELERATING CYCLONES...ANTICIPATING FORWARD SPEED IS TRICKY. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 36 HOUR...AND MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK INITIAL VORTEX WHICH RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER TRACK. EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A MORE REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL VORTEX SHOW ABRUPT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS RESULTING IN A DECELERATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND THE SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORECAST THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 72 HOUR POINT IS SHOWN SINCE THE 48 HOUR POINT IS NOT QUITE INLAND. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD SURVIVE A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...PAUL SHOULD BEGIN ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT DRY AIR ALREADY FLANKS THE CYCLONE. THESE TWO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS COULD PROVIDE A ONE-TWO PUNCH...AND THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS ACCORDINGLY BY SHOWING WEAKENING. HAVING SAID THAT...DIAGNOSING SHEAR IN SUCH A COMPLEX DYNAMICAL PATTERN IS DIFFICULT. INDEED...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINES TO SHOW MUCH LESS SHEAR RESULTING IN PAUL REMAINING AN INTENSE HURRICANE UNTIL NEARING BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE WEAKENING UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. ONCE INLAND...MORE ABRUPT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 95 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.3N 111.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.3N 109.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 23.3N 107.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 27.0N 104.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 231430 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1500 UTC MON OCT 23 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.3N 109.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.3N 107.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 104.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ32 KNHC 231438 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL STRENGTHENING AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES ...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPN31 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 111.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 111.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 17.3N 111.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.0N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.3N 109.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.3N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 27.0N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 111.5W. HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 22 FEET. AT 102312 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 231655 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.10.2006 HURRICANE PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 111.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2006 15.9N 111.6W MODERATE 00UTC 24.10.2006 16.5N 112.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2006 17.4N 111.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2006 18.2N 111.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2006 18.6N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2006 19.3N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2006 19.3N 112.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231655 ** WTPZ32 KNHC 231758 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1100 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES ...710 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...155 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.7 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH