** WTIO22 FMEE 230612 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1005 HPA POSITION: 9.3S / 51.4E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 18 UTC: 9.0S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 06 UTC: 8.7S / 48.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: RELOCATED CENTRE 60 NM IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 230612 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/10/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 008/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/10/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1005 HPA POSITION: 9.3S / 51.4E (NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE ET UN DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25/30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 18 UTC: 9.0S / 49.7E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 24/10/2006 A 06 UTC: 8.7S / 48.0E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CENTRE RELOCALISE 60 MN DANS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST COMPLETEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE NORD-OUEST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI S'ETEND LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 230612 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/10/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 008/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/10/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1005 HPA POSITION: 9.3S / 51.4E (NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE ET UN DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25/30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 18 UTC: 9.0S / 49.7E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 24/10/2006 A 06 UTC: 8.7S / 48.0E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CENTRE RELOCALISE 60 MN DANS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST COMPLETEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE NORD-OUEST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI S'ETEND LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 230612 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1005 HPA POSITION: 9.3S / 51.4E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 18 UTC: 9.0S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 06 UTC: 8.7S / 48.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: RELOCATED CENTRE 60 NM IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 230616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 0600 UTC : 9.3S / 51.4E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 08.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 18 UTC: 08.5S/46.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 06 UTC: 08.3S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/25 18 UTC: 08.2S/44.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/26 06 UTC: 08.0S/42.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5, CI=1.5+. RELOCATED CENTRE, 60 NM IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST (TRMM 23/10 AT 0058Z. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT THIS TIME OF THE SEASON. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 230616 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/1/20062007 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/10/2006 : 9.3S / 51.4E (NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE ET UN DEGRES QUATRE EST) 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1005 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: FAIBLE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 23/10/2006 18 UTC: 09.0S/49.7E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H: 24/10/2006 06 UTC: 08.7S/48.0E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 36H: 24/10/2006 18 UTC: 08.5S/46.5E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 48H: 25/10/2006 06 UTC: 08.3S/45.0E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 60H: 25/10/2006 18 UTC: 08.2S/44.0E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 72H: 26/10/2006 06 UTC: 08.0S/42.9E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=1.5, CI=1.5+. CENTRE RELOCALISE 60 MN DANS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST (TRMM 23/10 A 0058Z). LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, ET LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST COMPLETEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION RESIDUELLE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST FLUCTUANTE, ELLE DEMEURE ASSEZ CHAUDE ET LA PRESSION AU SOL EST ENCORE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE EN CE DEBUT DE SAISON. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 0600 UTC : 9.3S / 51.4E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 08.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 18 UTC: 08.5S/46.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 06 UTC: 08.3S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/25 18 UTC: 08.2S/44.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/26 06 UTC: 08.0S/42.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5, CI=1.5+. RELOCATED CENTRE, 60 NM IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST (TRMM 23/10 AT 0058Z. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT THIS TIME OF THE SEASON. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 230612 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1005 HPA POSITION: 9.3S / 51.4E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 18 UTC: 9.0S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 06 UTC: 8.7S / 48.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: RELOCATED CENTRE 60 NM IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 0600 UTC : 9.3S / 51.4E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 08.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 18 UTC: 08.5S/46.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 06 UTC: 08.3S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/25 18 UTC: 08.2S/44.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/26 06 UTC: 08.0S/42.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5, CI=1.5+. RELOCATED CENTRE, 60 NM IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST (TRMM 23/10 AT 0058Z. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH AT THIS TIME OF THE SEASON. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 230655 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------- DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPS11 NFFN 230600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/0750 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [955hPa] centre was located near 12.2 South 168.2 East at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation steadily improved with convective bands tightly wrapping around centre. CLoud-filled eye still evident. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear evident past 6 hours. Dvorak analysis based on W eye embedded in W surround gives a DT of 5.0. MET and PT=5.0, thus T5.0/45.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but wexpected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 13.4S 168.6E mov SSE 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 14.0S 168.7E mov SSE 05kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 14.5S 168.5E mov S 04kt with 100kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.9S 167.9E mov SSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 231400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 230600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/0750 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [955hPa] centre was located near 12.2 South 168.2 East at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation steadily improved with convective bands tightly wrapping around centre. CLoud-filled eye still evident. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear evident past 6 hours. Dvorak analysis based on W eye embedded in W surround gives a DT of 5.0. MET and PT=5.0, thus T5.0/45.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but wexpected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 13.4S 168.6E mov SSE 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 14.0S 168.7E mov SSE 05kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 14.5S 168.5E mov S 04kt with 100kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.9S 167.9E mov SSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 231400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 230600 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/0759 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to CI Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [955hPa] centre was located near 12.2 South 168.2 East at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation steadily improved with convective bands tightly wrapping around centre. CLoud-filled eye still evident. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear evident past 6 hours. Dvorak analysis based on W eye embedded in W surround gives a DT of 5.0. MET and PT=5.0, thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but wexpected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 13.4S 168.6E mov SSE 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 14.0S 168.7E mov SSE 05kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 14.5S 168.5E mov S 04kt with 100kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.9S 167.9E mov SSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 231400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 230600 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/0759 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to CI Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [955hPa] centre was located near 12.2 South 168.2 East at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation steadily improved with convective bands tightly wrapping around centre. CLoud-filled eye still evident. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear evident past 6 hours. Dvorak analysis based on W eye embedded in W surround gives a DT of 5.0. MET and PT=5.0, thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but wexpected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 13.4S 168.6E mov SSE 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 14.0S 168.7E mov SSE 05kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 14.5S 168.5E mov S 04kt with 100kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.9S 167.9E mov SSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 231400 UTC. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 230848 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN T4.5 AND T5.0...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. THE EYE HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SURROUNDED BY A NARROW RING OF -70C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS. OUTFLOW IS STRONG TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT LIMITED ZONALLY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNUSUALLY PROBLEMATIC. PAUL WILL VERY SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INDEED THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/4. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW HEADED FOR PAUL...AND THESE COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AS PAUL BEGINS TO RECURVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE RIDING ALONG A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EFFECT THIS SHEAR WILL HAVE ON THE STRUCTURE AND HENCE THE TRACK OF PAUL. EVERY GLOBAL MODEL...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN...SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF PAUL AND LEAVES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL REMNANT TO LINGER BEHIND. AND I CAN'T BLAME THIS ON THE INITIALIZATION...BECAUSE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EACH HAVE A VERY WELL-DEFINED INITIAL VORTEX. ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE THE GFDL...WHICH KEEPS PAUL AS A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE AND RACES IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS TO FAVOR THE GFDL SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS DESIGNED TO SORT OUT MODEL BIASES...ALSO FAVORS THE GFDL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE TRADITIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. AFTER THAT...SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERTAKES THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL STILL WANTS TO MAKE PAUL A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL BUT IF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SHEAR RIGHT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THE SHARP SHEAR GRADIENT...A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD KEEP PAUL IN A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH LONGER. A 72 HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN ONLY SO AS NOT TO SHOW THE TRACK ENDING ABRUPTLY OFFSHORE. I DON'T REALLY EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO SURVIVE A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.2N 111.5W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 17.2N 111.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.1N 111.3W 95 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 110.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.6N 108.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 104.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 230848 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0900 UTC MON OCT 23 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 125SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.2N 111.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.1N 111.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.4N 110.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.6N 108.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 104.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ32 KNHC 230849 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES ...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PHNC 231000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 111.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 111.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 17.2N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.1N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.4N 110.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 23.6N 108.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 27.0N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231000Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 111.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.// ** WTPZ32 KNHC 231150 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 500 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES ...645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH