** WTSR20 WSSS 221800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 230005 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: 9.7S / 53.0E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 12 UTC: TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 00 UTC: TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, REMAINS FLUCTUATING, UNDERGOING NOW A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR . THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230005 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 0000 UTC : 9.7S / 53.0E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.5S/50.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.0S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 08.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 07.7S/45.0E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.0S/43.5E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5.CI=1.5+. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED TO AN APPROACHING JET, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 230005 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: 9.7S / 53.0E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 12 UTC: TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 00 UTC: TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, REMAINS FLUCTUATING, UNDERGOING NOW A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR . THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230005 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 0000 UTC : 9.7S / 53.0E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.5S/50.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.0S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 08.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 07.7S/45.0E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.0S/43.5E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5.CI=1.5+. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED TO AN APPROACHING JET, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 230005 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/10/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 007/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/10/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: 9.7S / 53.0E (NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 300MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS LE CADRAN SUD-EST JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE . FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 12 UTC: PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 24/10/2006 A 00 UTC: PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE, FAVORISEE PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, RESTE FLUCTUANTE, SUBISSANT MAINTENANT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETIN REGULIER.= ** WTIO31 FMEE 230005 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/1/20062007 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/10/2006 : 9.7S / 53.0E (NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST) 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 1.5/1.5 /W 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1004 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: FAIBLE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 23/10/2006 12 UTC: 09.5S/50.6E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H: 24/10/2006 00 UTC: 09.0S/48.7E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 36H: 24/10/2006 12 UTC: 08.3S/46.7E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 48H: 25/10/2006 00 UTC: 07.7S/45.0E SE DISSIPANT. 60H: 25/10/2006 12 UTC: 07.0S/43.5E SE DISSIPANT. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=1.5. CI=1.5+. LA CONVECTION RESTE ASSEZ FLUCTUANTE, ET SUBIT L'EVOLUTION DIURNE. EN CETTE PHASE ACTIVE DE MJO, ELLE A ETE FAVORISEE PAR UNE TRES BONNE EVACUATION DANS SA PARTIE POLAIRE, MAIS LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DEVIENT MAINTENANT DEFAVORABLE. ELLE RESTE ASSEZ CHAUDE ET LA PRESSION AU SOL EST ENCORE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE EN CE DEBUT DE SAISON. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETIN REGULIER.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230005 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/23 AT 0000 UTC : 9.7S / 53.0E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.5S/50.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.0S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 08.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 07.7S/45.0E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.0S/43.5E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5.CI=1.5+. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED TO AN APPROACHING JET, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 230005 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/10/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: 9.7S / 53.0E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 12 UTC: TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/24 AT 00 UTC: TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, REMAINS FLUCTUATING, UNDERGOING NOW A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR .. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 230005 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/10/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 007/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 23/10/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: 9.7S / 53.0E (NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 300MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS LE CADRAN SUD-EST JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE . FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 12 UTC: PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 24/10/2006 A 00 UTC: PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE, FAVORISEE PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, RESTE FLUCTUANTE, SUBISSANT MAINTENANT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETIN REGULIER. . ** WTPS11 NFFN 230000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/0143 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [960hPa] centre was located near 11.5 South 168.0 East at 230000 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 75 knots, increasing to 85 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Cloud filled eye has appeared in the last 6 hours with convective bands tightly wrapped around centre. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on off-white eye embedded in black gives a DT of 4.5. MET =4.5 and PT=5.0, thus T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift southwest nudged by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 12.1S 167.4E mov SW 04kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 12.5S 166.8E mov SW 04kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 12.6S 166.2E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 13.2S 165.6E mov SW 04kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 230800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 230000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 23/0143 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [960hPa] centre was located near 11.5 South 168.0 East at 230000 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 75 knots, increasing to 85 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Cloud filled eye has appeared in the last 6 hours with convective bands tightly wrapped around centre. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on off-white eye embedded in black gives a DT of 4.5. MET =4.5 and PT=5.0, thus T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift southwest nudged by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 12.1S 167.4E mov SW 04kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 12.5S 166.8E mov SW 04kt with 95kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 12.6S 166.2E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 13.2S 165.6E mov SW 04kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 230800 UTC. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 230227 *** TCDEP2 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 PAUL IS DEFINITELY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AN EYE HAS FORMED ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AND T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75 KNOTS. PAUL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...PAUL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACH MAINLAND MEXICO AS A HURRICANE. PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS OR LESS. A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND PAUL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED. THE GDFL IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO MAINLAND MEXICO IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.1N 111.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.2N 111.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 21.3N 110.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 23.5N 109.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 27.5N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 230227 *** TCMEP2 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2006 AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST...AND TO LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.1W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.1W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.2N 111.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.3N 110.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ32 KNHC 230227 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 ...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...THREATENS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST...AND TO LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES ...745 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 475 MILES ...765 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...111.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 008 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 110.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 110.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.2N 111.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.2N 111.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.3N 110.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.5N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.5N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230400Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 111.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z. ** WTNT80 EGRR 230440 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.10.2006 HURRICANE PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 110.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2006 16.3N 110.6W MODERATE 12UTC 23.10.2006 16.9N 111.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2006 18.1N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2006 18.6N 111.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2006 19.3N 110.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2006 20.8N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2006 20.5N 109.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2006 20.0N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2006 19.3N 109.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230440 ** WTPZ32 KNHC 230546 *** TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 ...PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT ABOUT 480 MILES ...775 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...111.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN