** WTIO22 FMEE 221818 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/10/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/10/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1003 HPA POSITION: 10.3S / 53.3E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 06 UTC: 10.2S / 52.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 18 UTC: 10.2S / 50.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, REMAINS FLUCTUATING .= ** WTIO22 FMEE 221818 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/10/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/10/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1003 HPA POSITION: 10.3S / 53.3E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 06 UTC: 10.2S / 52.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 18 UTC: 10.2S / 50.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, REMAINS FLUCTUATING .= ** WTIO21 FMEE 221818 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 22/10/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 006/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 22/10/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1003 HPA POSITION: 10.3S / 53.3E (DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 450MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE ET DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQUA 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 06 UTC: 10.2S / 52.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 18 UTC: 10.2S / 50.7E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE, FAVORISEE PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, RESTE FLUCTUANTE, SUBISSANT L'EVOLUTION DIURNE. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 221818 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 22/10/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 006/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 22/10/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1003 HPA POSITION: 10.3S / 53.3E (DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 450MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE ET DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQUA 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 06 UTC: 10.2S / 52.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 18 UTC: 10.2S / 50.7E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE, FAVORISEE PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, RESTE FLUCTUANTE, SUBISSANT L'EVOLUTION DIURNE.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 221818 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/10/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/10/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1003 HPA POSITION: 10.3S / 53.3E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 06 UTC: 10.2S / 52.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 18 UTC: 10.2S / 50.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, REMAINS FLUCTUATING . . ** WTIO30 FMEE 221821 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1800 UTC : 10.3S / 53.3E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 10.2S/52.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 10.2S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.8S/49.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/24 18 UTC: 09.3S/47.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/25 06 UTC: 08.4S/46.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 18 UTC: 07.6S/44.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5.CI=2.0. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, RATHER GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. NEVERTHELESS, IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM).= ** WTIO30 FMEE 221821 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1800 UTC : 10.3S / 53.3E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 10.2S/52.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 10.2S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.8S/49.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/24 18 UTC: 09.3S/47.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/25 06 UTC: 08.4S/46.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 18 UTC: 07.6S/44.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5.CI=2.0. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, RATHER GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. NEVERTHELESS, IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM). . ** WTIO30 FMEE 221821 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1800 UTC : 10.3S / 53.3E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 10.2S/52.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 10.2S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.8S/49.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/24 18 UTC: 09.3S/47.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/25 06 UTC: 08.4S/46.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 18 UTC: 07.6S/44.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5.CI=2.0. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, RATHER GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. NEVERTHELESS, IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM).= ** WTIO31 FMEE 221821 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/1/20062007 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/10/2006 : 10.3S / 53.3E (DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST) 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 1.5/2.0 /W 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 23/10/2006 06 UTC: 10.2S/52.1E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H: 23/10/2006 18 UTC: 10.2S/50.7E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 36H: 24/10/2006 06 UTC: 09.8S/49.3E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 48H: 24/10/2006 18 UTC: 09.3S/47.8E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 60H: 25/10/2006 06 UTC: 08.4S/46.2E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 72H: 25/10/2006 18 UTC: 07.6S/44.4E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=1.5. CI=2.0. LA CONVECTION RESTE ASSEZ FLUCTUANTE, ET SUBIT L'EVOLUTION DIURNE. EN CETTE PHASE ACTIVE DE MJO, ELLE EST FAVORISEE PAR UNE TRES BONNE EVACUATION DANS SA PARTIE POLAIRE, EGALEMENT ASSEZ BONNE DANS SA PARTIE EQUATORIALE. NEAMOINS, ELLE RESTE ASSEZ CHAUDE ET LA PRESSION AU SOL EST ENCORE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE EN CE DEBUT DE SAISON. LA CONVERGENCE AU SOL EST FAIBLE. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SE MAINTENIR A CETTE INTENSITE ENCORE UN PEU, EN REMONTANT VERS LE NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE DE RAPIDE CANAL D'EVACUATION DE NORD-OUEST EN ALTITUDE (JET).= ** WTPS11 NFFN 221800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/1951 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [970hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.8 East at 221800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving east southeast at about 5 knots but expected curve west or southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 65 knots, increasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation continues to improve. Recent SSM/I passes indicate tight bands wrapping around a developing eye. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is maintained in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre yielding DT of 5.0. MET =4.0 and PT=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift west-southwest nudged by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.5S 167.1E mov SW 05kt with 75kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.0S 166.6E mov SW 04kt with 80kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.3S 166.0E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 12.5S 165.4E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 230200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 221800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/1951 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [970hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.8 East at 221800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving east southeast at about 5 knots but expected curve west or southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 65 knots, increasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation continues to improve. Recent SSM/I passes indicate tight bands wrapping around a developing eye. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is maintained in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre yielding DT of 5.0. MET =4.0 and PT=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift west-southwest nudged by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.5S 167.1E mov SW 05kt with 75kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.0S 166.6E mov SW 04kt with 80kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.3S 166.0E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 12.5S 165.4E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 230200 UTC. ** WTPZ22 KNHC 222027 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2100 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 111.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 120SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.5N 107.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 222027 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PAUL IS INTENSIFYING WITH INDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS PAUL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE THEREAFTER BASED ON LAND INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN WITH MAINLAND MEXICO AT 72 HOURS. PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 290/7. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY...ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW PAUL SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL VORTEX. THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.9N 110.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.4N 111.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W 60 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1800Z 25.5N 107.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH