** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 221222 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 00 UTC: 9.8S / 52.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 12 UTC: 9.8S / 50.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IS CONCENTRATING AND WRAPING AROUND THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 221222 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 00 UTC: 9.8S / 52.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 12 UTC: 9.8S / 50.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IS CONCENTRATING AND WRAPING AROUND THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 221222 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 22/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 005/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 22/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 400MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE ET DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQUA 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.8S / 52.4E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.8S / 50.2E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE, FAVORISEE PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, SE CONCENTRE ET S'ORGANISE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE. LE SYSTEME EST EN COURS D'INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 221222 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 22/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 00 UTC: 9.8S / 52.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/10/23 AT 12 UTC: 9.8S / 50.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IS CONCENTRATING AND WRAPING AROUND THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 221222 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 22/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 005/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 22/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 400MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE ET DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQUA 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.8S / 52.4E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 23/10/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.8S / 50.2E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE, FAVORISEE PAR UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, SE CONCENTRE ET S'ORGANISE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE. LE SYSTEME EST EN COURS D'INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 221232 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 09.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.4S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.5S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION, IT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BUT IS EXPECTED TO STREGNTHEN SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS AND TO REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM).= ** WTIO31 FMEE 221232 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/1/20062007 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/10/2006 : DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST) 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 23/10/2006 00 UTC: 09.8S/52.4E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H: 23/10/2006 12 UTC: 09.8S/50.2E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 36H: 24/10/2006 00 UTC: 09.4S/48.3E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 48H: 24/10/2006 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.7E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 25/10/2006 00 UTC: 08.5S/45.2E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 72H: 25/10/2006 12 UTC: 07.8S/43.8E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=2.0+. LA CONVECTION PRESENTE UNE BELLE ORGANISATION QUI SE CONCENTRE EN S'ENROULANT AU DESSUS DU CENTRE. EN CETTE PHASE ACTIVE DE MJO, ELLE EST FAVORISEE PAR UNE TRES BONNE EVACUATION DANS SA PARTIE POLAIRE, EGALEMENT ASSEZ BONNE DANS SA PARTIE EQUATORIALE. NEAMOINS, ELLE RESTE ASSEZ CHAUDE ET LA PRESSION AU SOL EST ENCORE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE EN CE DEBUT DE SAISON. LA CONVERGENCE AU SOL EST FAIBLE. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER ENCORE UN PEU, EN REMONTANT VERS LE NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE DE RAPIDE CANAL D'EVACUATION DE NORD-OUEST EN ALTITUDE (JET).= ** WTIO30 FMEE 221232 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 09.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.4S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.5S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION, IT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BUT IS EXPECTED TO STREGNTHEN SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS AND TO REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM).= ** WTIO30 FMEE 221232 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 09.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.4S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.5S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION, IT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BUT IS EXPECTED TO STREGNTHEN SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS AND TO REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM). . ** WTIO30 FMEE 221237 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 09.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.4S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.5S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CORRECTIVE : TEXT CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING, WRAPING ABOVE THE LLCC. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, RATHER GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. NEVERTHELESS, IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM). . ** WTIO30 FMEE 221237 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 09.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.4S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.5S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CORRECTIVE : TEXT CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING, WRAPING ABOVE THE LLCC. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, RATHER GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. NEVERTHELESS, IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM).= ** WTIO31 FMEE 221237 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/1/20062007 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/10/2006 : DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST) 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 23/10/2006 00 UTC: 09.8S/52.4E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H: 23/10/2006 12 UTC: 09.8S/50.2E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 36H: 24/10/2006 00 UTC: 09.4S/48.3E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 48H: 24/10/2006 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.7E, VENT MAX=030KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 60H: 25/10/2006 00 UTC: 08.5S/45.2E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 72H: 25/10/2006 12 UTC: 07.8S/43.8E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=2.0+. LA CONVECTION PRESENTE UNE BELLE ORGANISATION QUI SE CONCENTRE EN S'ENROULANT AU DESSUS DU CENTRE. EN CETTE PHASE ACTIVE DE MJO, ELLE EST FAVORISEE PAR UNE TRES BONNE EVACUATION DANS SA PARTIE POLAIRE, EGALEMENT ASSEZ BONNE DANS SA PARTIE EQUATORIALE. NEAMOINS, ELLE RESTE ASSEZ CHAUDE ET LA PRESSION AU SOL EST ENCORE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE EN CE DEBUT DE SAISON. LA CONVERGENCE AU SOL EST FAIBLE. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER ENCORE UN PEU, EN REMONTANT VERS LE NORD-OUEST EN BORDURE DE RAPIDE CANAL D'EVACUATION DE NORD-OUEST EN ALTITUDE (JET).= ** WTIO30 FMEE 221237 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 54.6E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 09.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 09.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/10/24 00 UTC: 09.4S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/10/24 12 UTC: 09.0S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/10/25 00 UTC: 08.5S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/25 12 UTC: 07.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CORRECTIVE : TEXT CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING, WRAPING ABOVE THE LLCC. IN THIS ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARDS OUTFLOW, RATHER GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. NEVERTHELESS, IT REMAINS RATHER WARM, AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER HIGH IN THIS MIDSEASON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY LIGHTLY AS IT CURVE NORTHWESTWARDS, EDGING A RAPID POLEWARDS OUTFLOW (JETSTREAM).= ** WTPS01 NFFN 221200 *** STORM Warning 007 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/1302 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [980hPa] centre was located near 10.9 South 167.3 East at 221200 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 10.9S 167.3E at 221200 UTC. Cyclone moving west-southwest 04 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre. Forecast position near 11.3S 166.4E at 230000 UTC and near 11.6S 165.9E at 231200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 006. ** WTPS01 NFFN 221200 *** STORM Warning 007 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/1302 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [980hPa] centre was located near 10.9 South 167.3 East at 221200 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 10.9S 167.3E at 221200 UTC. Cyclone moving west-southwest 04 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre. Forecast position near 11.3S 166.4E at 230000 UTC and near 11.6S 165.9E at 231200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 006. ** WTPS31 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 11.1S 167.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 167.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 11.3S 166.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 11.7S 166.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 12.0S 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 12.6S 164.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 167.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (XAVIER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY WEAKLY INTENSIFIED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP CONVEC- TION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MULTIPLE CELLS DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN PERIPHERY. TC 01P REMAINS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST. TC 01P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS APPROACHING OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.// ** WTPS11 NFFN 221200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/1422 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [980hPa] centre was located near 10.9 South 167.3 East at 221200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving west-southwest 04 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 55 knots, increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation improved past 6 hours with indications of a developing eye. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on convection wrap of 1.0 on log10 spiral yielding DT of 3.5. MET =4.5 and PT=4.0, thus T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone currently steered west-southwest by a deep easterly flow. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 230000 UTC near 11.3S 166.4E mov WSW 05kt with 60kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 11.6S 165.9E mov WSW 04kt with 80kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 11.8S 165.1E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 12.2S 164.6E mov WSW 04kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 222000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 221200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/1422 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [980hPa] centre was located near 10.9 South 167.3 East at 221200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving west-southwest 04 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 55 knots, increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation improved past 6 hours with indications of a developing eye. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on convection wrap of 1.0 on log10 spiral yielding DT of 3.5. MET =4.5 and PT=4.0, thus T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone currently steered west-southwest by a deep easterly flow. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 230000 UTC near 11.3S 166.4E mov WSW 05kt with 60kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 11.6S 165.9E mov WSW 04kt with 80kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 11.8S 165.1E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 12.2S 164.6E mov WSW 04kt with 100kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 222000 UTC. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 221432 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN PAUL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 3.0 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. WHILE PAUL IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. BEYOND 36 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR INTENSITY FORECASTS NO LONGER SHOWING PAUL BECOMING A HURRICANE. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF THE GFDL FIELDS SHOW THAT THE MODEL IS NOT RESPONDING TO THE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IS THUS CONSIDERED TOO ROBUST IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW PAUL BECOMING A MINIMAL HURRICANE OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND CONTINUITY. BY 72 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW. PAUL APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...OR 300/6...AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES A LITTLE WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL VORTEX. THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.3N 109.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 22.2N 110.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 221432 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1500 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.1W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.1W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTNT80 EGRR 221720 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 109.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2006 16.0N 109.3W MODERATE 00UTC 23.10.2006 17.1N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2006 18.3N 111.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2006 19.6N 111.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2006 20.8N 110.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2006 22.7N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2006 24.1N 108.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.10.2006 23.8N 107.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221720