** WTPS01 NFFN 220600 *** STORM Warning 006 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0643 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [985hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.2 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 11.0S 167.2E at 220600 UTC. Cyclone moving west 6 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre. Forecast position near 11.5S 166.4E at 221800 UTC and near 11.6S 165.5E at 230600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 005. ** WTPS01 NFFN 220600 *** STORM Warning 006 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0643 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [985hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.2 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 11.0S 167.2E at 220600 UTC. Cyclone moving west 6 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre. Forecast position near 11.5S 166.4E at 221800 UTC and near 11.6S 165.5E at 230600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 005. ** WTIN20 DEMS 220700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPS11 NFFN 220600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0742 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [985hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.2 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving west 06 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 50 knots, increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation continues to steadily improve with outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in the vicinity of the 250 hPa ridge in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding DT of 3.5. MET and PT agree with T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to steer westwards into decreasing environmental shear in response to a developing mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 221800 UTC near 11.5S 166.4E mov WSW 05kt with 55kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.6S 165.5E mov W 05kt with 65kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.1S 164.7E mov WSW 05kt with 70kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.1S 163.8E mov W 05kt with 75kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 221400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 220600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0742 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [985hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.2 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving west 06 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 50 knots, increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Organisation continues to steadily improve with outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in the vicinity of the 250 hPa ridge in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding DT of 3.5. MET and PT agree with T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to steer westwards into decreasing environmental shear in response to a developing mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 221800 UTC near 11.5S 166.4E mov WSW 05kt with 55kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.6S 165.5E mov W 05kt with 65kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.1S 164.7E mov WSW 05kt with 70kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.1S 163.8E mov W 05kt with 75kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 221400 UTC. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 220841 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 PAUL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE STRENGTHENED...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CIRRUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER HAS A HARD EDGE...INDICATING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...AND OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS ALREADY STARTING TO BECOME RESTRICTED AND DEFLECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE UPPER-LOW CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO T2.5 SINCE 00Z...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION A SHADE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/7. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE LARGE UPPER-LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT THE TRACK NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...WITH THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE FOCUSING ON A TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING THAT ARE RELATED TO HOW PAUL RESPONDS TO THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AFTER RECURVATURE. THE GFDL RESISTS THE SHEAR...MAKING PAUL A MAJOR HURRICANE AND TAKING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A SLOWER MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS DONE VERY WELL THIS YEAR AT LONGER RANGES...DISSIPATES PAUL AND MEANDERS THE REMNANTS OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WELL SLOWER THAN THE GFDL BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER ENVIROMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN A DAY OR SO AND THE WATER IS PLENTY WARM. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS PAUL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TOO STRONG IN LIGHT OF THE FORECAST SHEAR AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT MIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE EITHER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.8N 108.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.1N 111.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 220841 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0900 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 108.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 108.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.0N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.1N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.7N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.0N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.0N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 109.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. // BT #0001 ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 108.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 108.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.0N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.1N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.7N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.0N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.0N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 109.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. // BT #0001