** WTPS01 NFFN 220000 *** GALE Warning 005 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0128 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [995hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.8 East at 220000 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 11.0S 167.8E at 220000 UTC. Cyclone moving southsoutheast 2 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre. Forecast position near 11.3S 168.0E at 221200 UTC and near 11.6S 168.3E at 230000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 004. ** WTPS01 NFFN 220000 *** GALE Warning 005 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0128 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone XAVIER [995hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.8 East at 220000 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 11.0S 167.8E at 220000 UTC. Cyclone moving southsoutheast 2 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre. Forecast position near 11.3S 168.0E at 221200 UTC and near 11.6S 168.3E at 230000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 004. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 220231 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006 PAUL IS A PARTLY SHEARED SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES INDICATING THE CENTER IS JUST EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AND UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN OUTFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR MAY BE DECREASING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST REASONING SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N124W. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HR AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A MOTION TOWARD CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PAUL SHEARING APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING TO BAJA AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING CLOSER TO THE GFDL TRACK. ON THE PREMISE THAT THE STORM WILL NOT SHEAR APART...THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST PAUL TO BE IN A LIGHT-MODERATE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECASTING PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HR...CALLING FOR PAUL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND KEEP PAUL A 65-KT HURRICANE FROM 48 HR UNTIL LANDFALL. THE WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON GUIDANCE AND THE FORECAST MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.9N 108.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.1N 109.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.8N 110.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.9N 110.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 29.0N 105.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 220231 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.1N 109.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 110.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 105.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPS11 NFFN 220000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0259 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [995hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.8 East at 220000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS/EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving southsoutheast 02 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 35 knots, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Xavier has undergone explosive development in the last 12 hours. Organisation is steadily improving and convection about central area is increasing and cooling past 6 hours. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in the vicinity of the 250 hPa ridge in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .95 yields DT=3.5, PT at 3.5 and MET AT 3.0. Due to Dvorak constraints, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to be steered southwest by developing mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 221200 UTC near 11.3S 168.0E mov SSE 02kt with 45kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 230000 UTC near 11.6S 168.3E mov SE 02kt with 55kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 12.0S 168.0E mov SW 03kt with 60kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 12.5S 167.4E mov SW 05kt with 65kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 220800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 220000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 22/0259 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [995hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.8 East at 220000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS/EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving southsoutheast 02 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 35 knots, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Xavier has undergone explosive development in the last 12 hours. Organisation is steadily improving and convection about central area is increasing and cooling past 6 hours. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in the vicinity of the 250 hPa ridge in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .95 yields DT=3.5, PT at 3.5 and MET AT 3.0. Due to Dvorak constraints, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to be steered southwest by developing mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 221200 UTC near 11.3S 168.0E mov SSE 02kt with 45kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 230000 UTC near 11.6S 168.3E mov SE 02kt with 55kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 12.0S 168.0E mov SW 03kt with 60kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 12.5S 167.4E mov SW 05kt with 65kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER will be issued around 220800 UTC. ** WTPN31 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAUL) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 108.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 108.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 16.1N 109.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 16.8N 110.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.9N 110.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.9N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 29.0N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 220400Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 108.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 220531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 107.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2006 16.3N 107.6W MODERATE 12UTC 22.10.2006 16.8N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2006 17.5N 110.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2006 19.3N 110.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2006 21.1N 111.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2006 23.0N 110.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2006 24.6N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220531