** WTPZ42 KNHC 212030 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006 PAUL IS CURRENTLY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 45 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE RELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALSO RELIABLE... WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS PAUL INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MEETS HALFWAY AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BUT ONLY TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER...PAUL SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A FEW MODELS ONLY...SINCE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION MUCH EARLIER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.1N 107.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.2N 108.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 109.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 110.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 105.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 212030 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2100 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.2N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.6N 109.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.5N 110.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.0N 105.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA