** WTSR20 WSSS 210600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ42 KNHC 211432 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY SHIP SFMN WHICH REPORTED 33 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002.8 MB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PAUL AT THIS TIME. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL. ON THE OTHER HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT DOING MUCH IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITH PAUL. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270/8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING PAUL TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING PAUL NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. RELIABLE MODELS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO BY DAY FIVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.0N 106.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.1N 108.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ22 KNHC 211433 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1500 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT80 EGRR 211645 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 107.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2006 15.6N 107.0W WEAK 00UTC 22.10.2006 16.2N 108.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2006 16.0N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2006 16.3N 111.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2006 16.7N 112.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2006 17.7N 112.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.10.2006 18.6N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2006 19.2N 112.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2006 19.6N 111.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.10.2006 19.8N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2006 18.9N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211645