** WTIO22 FMEE 210615 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 21/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND 600NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 18 UTC: 7.1S / 57.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/22 AT 06 UTC: 8.0S / 55.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC WITH AN ENHANCED ACTIVITY DURING NIGHTTIME. THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SO UTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 210615 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 21/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND 600NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 18 UTC: 7.1S / 57.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/22 AT 06 UTC: 8.0S / 55.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC WITH AN ENHANCED ACTIVITY DURING NIGHTTIME. THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SO UTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 210615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 21/10/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 004/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 21/10/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET 600MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQUA 120 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 21/10/2006 A 18 UTC: 7.1S / 57.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 22/10/2006 A 06 UTC: 8.0S / 55.5E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE ASSOCIEE AU SYSTEME 01 RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE ET CYCLIQUE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE PLUS MARQUEE EN COURS DE NUIT. CETTE PERTURBATION TROPICALE N'EST PAS PREVUE S'INTENSIFIER DE MANIERE SIGNIFICATIVE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. LE SYSTEME POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET DEVRAIT CONTOURNER LES SEYCHELLES PAR LE SUD. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 210616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/21 18 UTC: 07.1S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/22 06 UTC: 08.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/22 18 UTC: 08.6S/53.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 09.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.3S/50.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION, IT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BUT IS EXPECTED TO STREGNTHEN SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS AND TO REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 210616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/21 18 UTC: 07.1S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/22 06 UTC: 08.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/22 18 UTC: 08.6S/53.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 09.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.3S/50.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION, IT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BUT IS EXPECTED TO STREGNTHEN SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS AND TO REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO31 FMEE 210616 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/1/20062007 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/10/2006 : DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST) 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1004 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 21/10/2006 18 UTC: 07.1S/57.1E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H: 22/10/2006 06 UTC: 08.0S/55.5E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 36H: 22/10/2006 18 UTC: 08.6S/53.9E, VENT MAX=025KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 48H: 23/10/2006 06 UTC: 09.1S/52.0E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 60H: 23/10/2006 18 UTC: 09.3S/50.5E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 72H: 24/10/2006 06 UTC: 09.1S/48.7E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE AU SYSTEME 01 EST UN PEU PLUS MARQUEE QUE HIER MAIS SANS ORGANISATION SIGNIFICATIVE, ELLE TRES FLUCTUANTE ET CYCLIQUE. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST FAVORABLE, LE CISAILLEMENT EST FAIBLE MAIS DEVRAIT AUGMENTER PROCHAINEMENT. CE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONTOURNER LES SEYCHELLE S PAR LE SUD SANS S'INTENSIFIER SIGNIFICATIVEMENT. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 210615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 21/10/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 004/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 21/10/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET 600MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQUA 120 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 21/10/2006 A 18 UTC: 7.1S / 57.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 22/10/2006 A 06 UTC: 8.0S / 55.5E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE ASSOCIEE AU SYSTEME 01 RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE ET CYCLIQUE AVEC UNE ACTIVITE PLUS MARQUEE EN COURS DE NUIT. CETTE PERTURBATION TROPICALE N'EST PAS PREVUE S'INTENSIFIER DE MANIERE SIGNIFICATIVE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. LE SYSTEME POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET DEVRAIT CONTOURNER LES SEYCHELLES PAR LE SUD. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 210615 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 21/10/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND 600NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 18 UTC: 7.1S / 57.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/22 AT 06 UTC: 8.0S / 55.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC WITH AN ENHANCED ACTIVITY DURING NIGHTTIME. THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SO UTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 210616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3S / 58.2E (SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/21 18 UTC: 07.1S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/22 06 UTC: 08.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/22 18 UTC: 08.6S/53.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/23 06 UTC: 09.1S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/23 18 UTC: 09.3S/50.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/24 06 UTC: 09.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM 01 IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY BUT DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION, IT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BUT IS EXPECTED TO STREGNTHEN SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES ISLANDS AND TO REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 210825 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.1N 108.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 103.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ42 KNHC 210853 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NEARBY SHIP REPORTS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 230 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...AT 21/0600Z SHIP A8HR7 IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT REPORTED 27 KT WINDS...WHILE SHIP SFMN LOCATED ABOUT 45 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A WEST WIND OF 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. TD-17E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MASSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY 48-72 HOURS...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY 96 HOURS. A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES DUE TO POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS POSITION IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WELL BEHIND NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST DUE TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS BY DAY 5...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A SMALL TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS TILTING THE VORTEX TOWARD THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARD...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL 96 HOURS WHEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 15.5N 105.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 15.4N 107.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 15.1N 108.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.2N 109.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 103.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E WARNING NR 001 REF/A/MY/201951Z OCT 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 105.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 105.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.4N 107.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.1N 108.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.2N 109.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.0N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 18.0N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.0N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 27.0N 103.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 211000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 106.4W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 201951Z OCT 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 202000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.