** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 ***
NO STORM WARNING=


** WTXS21 PGTW 201330 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180851ZOCT06//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321Z OCT 06//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 191330). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.9S 59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
3.3S 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 970 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOGADISHU,
SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED, WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 200341Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTED ISOLATED, POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED MODERATE,
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//


** WTXS21 PGTW 201330 COR ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELATION/201321ZOCT2006//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321Z OCT 06//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 191330). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.9S 59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
3.3S 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 970 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOGADISHU,
SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED, WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 200341Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTED ISOLATED, POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED MODERATE,
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE IN SUBJ
HEADER.//


** WTXS21 PGTW 201330 COR ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/201321ZOCT2006//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321Z OCT 06//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 191330). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.9S 59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
3.3S 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 970 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOGADISHU,
SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED, WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 200341Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTED ISOLATED, POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED MODERATE,
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE IN SUBJ
HEADER.//


** WTNT80 EGRR 201640 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.10.2006

    
             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.0N 108.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.10.2006  16.0N 108.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 23.10.2006  15.9N 108.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.10.2006  17.0N 108.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.10.2006  18.6N 110.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.10.2006  20.2N 110.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.10.2006  21.3N 110.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.10.2006  BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGHT 


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 201640