** WTIN20 DEMS 200640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) -------- MSG OVER.../ ** WTIO30 FMEE 201147 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/20 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/21 00 UTC: 04.4S/60.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/21 12 UTC: 05.5S/60.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/22 00 UTC: 06.6S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/22 12 UTC: 07.4S/57.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 08.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 08.3S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHEASTWARDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS FLUCTUATING. NORTHEASTERLY MODERATE WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO EQUATORIAL INFLOW. WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY DURING NEXT DAYS, TRACKING AROUND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 201147 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 20/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN 40 NM AND 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 00 UTC: 4.4S / 60.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 12 UTC: 5.5S / 60.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE NOT ORGANIZED AND ARE SPATIALLY VERY FLUCTUATING, ACTUALLY LOCATED FAR FROM THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY DURING NEXT DAYS, TRACKING AROUND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 201147 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/20 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/21 00 UTC: 04.4S/60.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/21 12 UTC: 05.5S/60.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/22 00 UTC: 06.6S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/22 12 UTC: 07.4S/57.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 08.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 08.3S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHEASTWARDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS FLUCTUATING. NORTHEASTERLY MODERATE WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO EQUATORIAL INFLOW. WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY DURING NEXT DAYS, TRACKING AROUND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO31 FMEE 201147 *** CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN) 0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/1/20062007 1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/10/2006 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST) 3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1004 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: FAIBLE 1.B PREVISIONS: 12H: 21/10/2006 00 UTC: 04.4S/60.8E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H: 21/10/2006 12 UTC: 05.5S/60.4E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 36H: 22/10/2006 00 UTC: 06.6S/59.3E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 48H: 22/10/2006 12 UTC: 07.4S/57.9E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 60H: 23/10/2006 00 UTC: 08.0S/56.2E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 72H: 23/10/2006 12 UTC: 08.3S/54.0E, VENT MAX=020KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 2.B COMMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE BIEN DEFINIE ET EST DESORMAIS TOTALEMENT EXPOSEE AU NORD-EST DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST FLUCTUANTE. CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST, DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NEUTRE, PAS D'ALIMENTATION EQUATORIALE. FAIBLE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION. CE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE FAIBLE LES PROCHAINS JOURS EN CONTOURNANT LES SEYCHELLES PAR LE SUD-EST. CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER EMIS SUR CE SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 201147 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 20/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN 40 NM AND 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 00 UTC: 4.4S / 60.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 12 UTC: 5.5S / 60.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE NOT ORGANIZED AND ARE SPATIALLY VERY FLUCTUATING, ACTUALLY LOCATED FAR FROM THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY DURING NEXT DAYS, TRACKING AROUND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 201147 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 20/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 003/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 20/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT ENTRE 40MN ET 200MN DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQUA 90 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 21/10/2006 A 00 UTC: 4.4S / 60.8E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 21/10/2006 A 12 UTC: 5.5S / 60.4E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES MASSES NUAGEUSES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE NE MONTRENT PAS D'ORGANISATION ET SONT TRES FLUCTUANTES, SITUEES ACTUELLEMENT LOIN DU MINIMUM DE SURFACE QUI EST DENUE DE CONVECTION PROFONDE. CE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE FAIBLE LES PROCHAINS JOURS EN CONTOURNANT LES SEYCHELLES PAR LE SUD-EST. CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER EMIS SUR CE SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 201147 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2006/10/20 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/10/21 00 UTC: 04.4S/60.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/10/21 12 UTC: 05.5S/60.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/10/22 00 UTC: 06.6S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/10/22 12 UTC: 07.4S/57.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/10/23 00 UTC: 08.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/10/23 12 UTC: 08.3S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHEASTWARDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS FLUCTUATING. NORTHEASTERLY MODERATE WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO EQUATORIAL INFLOW. WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY DURING NEXT DAYS, TRACKING AROUND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 201147 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 20/10/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN 40 NM AND 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 00 UTC: 4.4S / 60.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/10/21 AT 12 UTC: 5.5S / 60.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE NOT ORGANIZED AND ARE SPATIALLY VERY FLUCTUATING, ACTUALLY LOCATED FAR FROM THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A WEAK INTENSITY DURING NEXT DAYS, TRACKING AROUND SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 201147 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 20/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 003/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 20/10/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 3.6S / 60.6E (TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT ENTRE 40MN ET 200MN DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD JUSQUA 90 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 21/10/2006 A 00 UTC: 4.4S / 60.8E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 21/10/2006 A 12 UTC: 5.5S / 60.4E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES MASSES NUAGEUSES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE NE MONTRENT PAS D'ORGANISATION ET SONT TRES FLUCTUANTES, SITUEES ACTUELLEMENT LOIN DU MINIMUM DE SURFACE QUI EST DENUE DE CONVECTION PROFONDE. CE SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE FAIBLE LES PROCHAINS JOURS EN CONTOURNANT LES SEYCHELLES PAR LE SUD-EST. CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER EMIS SUR CE SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION.=