** WTIN20 DEMS 180731 ***

            TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
     ------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL  CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-10-2006 (.) 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY 
OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID  FOR NEXT 24 HOURS 
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) 

CONVECTIVE  CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL(.)

THE WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING AT 200 HPA OVER
THE INDIAN REGION (.) 


MSG OVER ??????????


** WTXS21 PGTW 180900 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180851ZOCT06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 62.0E TO 5.1S 55.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180530Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.6S 61.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.6S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY
1040 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOGADISHU HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY HAS SHOWN DEEP CONVECTION
INCREASING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 190900Z.//