** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=


** WTPQ20 RJTD 160000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN  160000UTC 33.5N 149.0E FAIR
MOVE  ENE 25KT
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  055KT
50KT  140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST
30KT  280NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  170000UTC 38.7N 166.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


** WTJP21 RJTD 160000 ***
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975
HPA
AT 33.5N 149.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 37.8N 157.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 38.7N 166.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


** WTPQ30 RJTD 160000 ***

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
  POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
  POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS FAIR.
  STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
  STS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS.=


** WTPQ20 RJTD 160300 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  160300UTC 34.6N 150.3E FAIR
MOVE  ENE 25KT
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  055KT
50KT  140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST
30KT  280NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  170300UTC 38.7N 167.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


** WTJP31 RJTD 160300 ***
WARNING 160300.
WARNING VALID 170300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA
AT 34.6N 150.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 38.1N 158.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 38.7N 167.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 104.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 000 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 104.7W
    ---
REMARKS:
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME-
TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).  THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET.//


** WTNT80 EGRR 160459 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.10.2006

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 104.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 16.10.2006  18.6N 104.1W     WEAK
 12UTC 16.10.2006  18.2N 104.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.10.2006        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    
 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 160459