** WTNT80 EGRR 151820 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 104.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2006 18.3N 104.3W MODERATE 00UTC 16.10.2006 18.2N 103.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.10.2006 16.3N 95.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151820 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 151800 UTC 00HR 32.4N 146.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 470KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NE 55KM/H P+24HR 38.6N 161.8E 992HPA 16M/S= ** WTNT80 EGRR 151820 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 104.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2006 18.3N 104.3W MODERATE 00UTC 16.10.2006 18.2N 103.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.10.2006 16.3N 95.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151820 ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 151800UTC 32.3N 146.2E FAIR MOVE NE 26KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 161800UTC 38.9N 161.7E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 151800 *** WARNING 151800. WARNING VALID 161800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 970 HPA AT 32.3N 146.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 36.1N 153.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 38.9N 161.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 151800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TY 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 151800UTC 32.5N 146.2E MOVEMENT NE 29KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 161800UTC 38.9N 160.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ45 KNHC 152029 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO HAVE NOT PROVIDED ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTER OF NORMAN MOVED INLAND...AND THE DATA SUGGEST THAT NORMAN LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND RESEMBLES THAT OF AN OPEN TROUGH RATHER THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE ALSO PROVIDED NO INDICATION OF A CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...NORMAN IS BEING DECLARED DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE LARGE AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO...AND IT COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NORMAN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.2N 104.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ35 KNHC 152029 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 ...NORMAN DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES.... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY AND THE REMNANTS ARE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN...COMBINED WITH A LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...19.2 N...104.7 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ25 KNHC 152030 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 104.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT...DISSIPATING WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 104.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 104.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPQ20 RJTD 152100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 152100UTC 33.3N 148.1E FAIR MOVE NE 30KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST 30KT 280NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 162100UTC 39.1N 164.1E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 152100 *** WARNING 152100. WARNING VALID 162100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 970 HPA AT 33.3N 148.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 37.5N 156.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 39.1N 164.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 32.3N 146.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 27 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 146.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 35.4N 153.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 148.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 21W IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF ITS EXTRATROPICAL NATURE INCLUDING LOSS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO NMFC PEARL HARBOR WEB PAGE FOR EXTRATROPICAL HIGH WINDS AND SEAS INFORMATION (HTTPS://METOCPH.NMCI.NAVY.MIL OR HTTP://WWW.NPMOC.NAVY.SMIL.MIL).//