** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 151200 UTC 00HR 30.4N 143.9E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NE 40KM/H P+24HR 36.9N 154.4E 980HPA 28M/S P+48HR 38.5N 172.0E 990HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 151200 *** WARNING 151200. WARNING VALID 161200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 965 HPA AT 30.5N 143.9E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 34.0N 149.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 37.2N 156.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 151200UTC 30.5N 143.9E GOOD MOVE NE 20KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 161200UTC 37.2N 156.9E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PGTW 151500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 027 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 21W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 30.5N 144.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 144.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 33.7N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 36.6N 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 31.3N 145.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// ** WTPZ25 KNHC 151453 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 104.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 104.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 104.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.7N 104.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ35 KNHC 151455 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 ...CENTER OF NORMAN NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.0 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 151501 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT TRMM AND AMSR-E OVERPASSES HAVE NOT PROVIDED ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO HELP LOCATE THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST RECEIVED INDICATES THAT IF THE CENTER IS NOT ALREADY ON THE COAST IT IS VERY CLOSE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT...AND THE RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY 35 KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. GIVEN THESE DATA NORMAN WILL REMAIN A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE MAIN INHIBITOR FOR STRENGTHENING IS NORMAN'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK NORMAN SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE NORMAN REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THEREAFTER... NORMAN SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURES REMAIN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT NORMAN STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 19.0N 104.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.7N 104.6W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 16/1200Z 20.7N 104.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPN31 PHNC 151600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 18.8N 104.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 104.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.7N 104.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.7N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 151500UTC 31.5N 144.8E GOOD MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 161500UTC 38.1N 158.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 151500 *** WARNING 151500. WARNING VALID 161500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 965 HPA AT 31.5N 144.8E NORTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 35.2N 150.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 38.1N 158.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPZ35 KNHC 151756 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 ...NORMAN SLOWS DOWN AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR AND ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...19.1 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB