** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 29.0N 142.3E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 410KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NE 35KM/H P+24HR 35.6N 152.6E 980HPA 28M/S P+48HR 38.8N 168.7E 990HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 150600 *** WARNING 150600. WARNING VALID 160600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 965 HPA AT 29.0N 142.3E NORTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 32.1N 145.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 35.5N 151.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 37.6N 167.5E WITH 190 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 150600UTC 29.0N 142.3E GOOD MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 140NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 260NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 160600UTC 35.5N 151.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 30KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 170600UTC 37.6N 167.5E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 150600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 150600UTC 29.0N 142.3E MOVEMENT NNE 18KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 160600UTC 35.6N 151.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 36HR POSITION 161800UTC 37.6N 159.2E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 170600UTC 38.6N 168.2E WITHIN 0NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 150900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 29.0N 142.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.0N 142.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 31.7N 145.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 32 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 34.9N 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 35 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 37.7N 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 143.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 150800 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 150752Z OCT 06// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140752Z OCT 06// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140800)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8N 106.6W TO 20.9N 103.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 150630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE REMNANTS OF TD 15E (NORMAN) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.6W ARE NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.9W, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150425Z TRMM TMI IMAGE REVEAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITHIN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160800Z.// ** WTPZ25 KNHC 150847 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006 AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.7N 104.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.7N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 105.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ45 KNHC 150849 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN. CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1001 MB. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT VERY WELL-ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS A COMBINATION OF THE REMNANT OF NORMAN AND ANOTHER LOW...THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF NORMAN'S REMNANTS TO JUSTIFY CALLING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WARM OCEAN WATERS...AND PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND. CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 035/7. ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL ROTATION OF THE CENTER AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...THE MAIN STEERING FEATURES ARE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THEIR COUNTRY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.1N 105.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 18.7N 104.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 104.4W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ25 KNHC 150853 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006 ...CORRECTED TO NOT SHOW REMNANT LOW AT 15/1800Z... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.7N 104.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.7N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 105.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ35 KNHC 150900 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 ...NORMAN REGENERATES NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN HAVE REDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...105.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTJP31 RJTD 150900 *** WARNING 150900. WARNING VALID 160900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 965 HPA AT 29.6N 143.3E NORTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 33.0N 146.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 36.2N 153.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 150900UTC 29.6N 143.3E GOOD MOVE NE 19KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 140NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 260NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 160900UTC 36.2N 153.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 30KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 170600UTC 37.6N 167.5E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/150752OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 105.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.7N 104.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.7N 104.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.5N 104.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: AT 150600Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 308 NM WNW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 150752Z OCT 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 150800) NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z.// ** WTPZ35 KNHC 151139 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 500 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 ...NORMAN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N..104.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ35 KNHC 151151 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 500 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 ...CORRECTED REPEAT SECTION... ...NORMAN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...104.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH