** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 27.4N 141.7E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 33.5N 149.0E 970HPA 33M/S P+48HR 38.0N 163.1E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 150000 *** WARNING 150000. WARNING VALID 160000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 965 HPA AT 27.3N 141.6E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 30.2N 143.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 33.9N 148.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 38.0N 165.5E WITH 190 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 150000UTC 27.3N 141.6E GOOD MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160000UTC 33.9N 148.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 27KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 170000UTC 38.0N 165.5E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO EAST-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 27.6N 141.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 141.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 30.5N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 33.3N 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 36.4N 156.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 142.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 150300 *** WARNING 150300. WARNING VALID 160300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 965 HPA AT 28.1N 141.9E NORTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 31.2N 144.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 34.3N 149.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 28.1N 141.9E GOOD MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 34.3N 149.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 170000UTC 38.0N 165.5E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 150507 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 165.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2006 11.7N 165.7W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2006 11.7N 165.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 106.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2006 17.3N 106.5W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2006 18.0N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 18.4N 104.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150507 ** WTIN20 DEMS 150535 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-10-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 6.5 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ??????????