** WTPQ20 BABJ 141800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC 00HR 26.1N 141.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 440KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 31.7N 144.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 37.0N 156.5E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 39.6N 172.6E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC 00HR 26.1N 141.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 440KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 31.7N 144.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 37.0N 156.5E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 39.6N 172.6E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 141800UTC 26.3N 141.1E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 151800UTC 32.0N 146.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 23KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 161800UTC 37.9N 161.6E 190NM 70% MOVE ENE 34KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 171800UTC 37.2N 177.6E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 141800 *** WARNING 141800. WARNING VALID 151800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 26.3N 141.1E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 28.5N 142.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 32.0N 146.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 37.9N 161.6E WITH 190 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 37.2N 177.6E WITH 400 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 141800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 141800UTC 26.3N 141.1E MOVEMENT N 8KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 151800UTC 31.5N 145.0E WITHIN 120NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 161800UTC 37.4N 158.0E WITHIN 185NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 171800UTC 39.9N 170.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 142100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 26.4N 141.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 141.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 28.8N 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 31.6N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 34.6N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 35 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 37.3N 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 141.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 142100 *** WARNING 142100. WARNING VALID 152100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 26.9N 141.3E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 29.6N 143.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 33.1N 147.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 142100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 142100UTC 26.9N 141.3E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 152100UTC 33.1N 147.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 24KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 161800UTC 37.9N 161.6E 190NM 70% MOVE ENE 34KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 171800UTC 37.2N 177.6E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =