** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 25.4N 141.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 440KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 29.5N 143.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 34.9N 151.1E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 38.9N 165.3E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 141200 *** WARNING 141200. WARNING VALID 151200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 25.4N 141.1E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 27.0N 141.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 29.6N 143.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 35.9N 153.3E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 38.0N 166.7E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 25.4N 141.1E GOOD MOVE N 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 151200UTC 29.6N 143.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 161200UTC 35.9N 153.3E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 171200UTC 38.0N 166.7E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 141.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 141.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 27.4N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 30.3N 144.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 33.2N 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 35.7N 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 141.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTPA45 PHFO 141440 *** TCDCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 500 AM HST SAT OCT 14 2006 RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC. THE LLCC HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY OVER 200 NM EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WITH THE SYSTEM SHEARING LIKE THIS...THERE IS LITTLE LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL PERSIST LONG AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...SO THESE WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORIES FROM CPHC. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD AROUND FOUR-C HAS BECOME RATHER WEAK...THE REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A TROUGH ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE MOVING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM FOUR-C IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ISSUING NO MORE ADVISORIES ON FOUR-C...PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OTHER FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM WFO HONOLULU FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE DEVELOPING WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.0N 165.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.0N 165.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA35 PHFO 141442 *** TCPCP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 500 AM HST SAT OCT 14 2006 AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.5 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...13.0 N...165.5 W. NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA25 PHFO 141444 *** TCMCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 1500 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 165.5W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 165.5W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 165.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.0N 165.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 141500UTC 25.9N 141.1E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 151500UTC 30.6N 144.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 161200UTC 35.9N 153.3E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 25KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 171200UTC 38.0N 166.7E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 141500 *** WARNING 141500. WARNING VALID 151500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 25.9N 141.1E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 27.5N 142.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 30.6N 144.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04C WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 165.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 000 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 165.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.0N 165.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 141655 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 166.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2006 13.0N 166.2W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2006 12.6N 166.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2006 12.9N 165.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 13.8N 164.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2006 16.0N 163.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 107.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2006 16.5N 107.3W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2006 17.3N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2006 17.7N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 17.9N 104.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141655