** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 24.8N 141.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 440KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 27.7N 142.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 34.0N 149.1E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 37.7N 161.0E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 24.8N 140.9E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 27.9N 142.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 160600UTC 33.7N 148.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 19KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 170600UTC 37.8N 160.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 955 HPA AT 24.8N 140.9E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 25.9N 141.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 27.9N 142.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 33.7N 148.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 37.8N 160.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 140700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 15 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 24.8N 140.9E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150600UTC 28.1N 142.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 160600UTC 33.9N 150.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 170600UTC 37.9N 160.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN21 PHNC 140800 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/140752ZOCT2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 109.5W TO 16.0N 103.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 140630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE REMNANTS OF TD 15E (NORMAN) ARE NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.6W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140257Z SSMI IMAGE REVEAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH WEAK BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITHIN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SERVE TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150800Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 24.8N 140.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 140.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 26.2N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 28.7N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 31.9N 145.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 34.6N 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 38.6N 164.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 141.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// ** WTPA25 PHFO 140849 *** TCMCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 0900 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 165.7W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 165.7W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 165.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.5N 165.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.1N 164.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.7N 164.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.4N 163.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 161.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 165.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA35 PHFO 140851 *** TCPCP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 1100 PM HST FRI OCT 13 2006 AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.7 WEST OR ABOUT 715 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...14.1 N...165.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPA45 PHFO 140910 *** TCDCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 1100 PM HST FRI OCT 13 2006 ANALYZING FOUR-C HAS BEEN RATHER PROBLEMATICAL WITH A SPREAD OF OVER ONE DEGREE LONGITUDE IN SATELLITE FIXES AND CURRENT INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.5. I HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN STRONGLY ON RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. A 13/1910 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER NEAR 13.8N 166.2W. A 14/0214 AMSUB PASS APPEARS TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 13.9N 165.9W WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A 14/0505 PASS SEEMS TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 13.8N 165.8W WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY...RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES HAVE MISSED FOUR-C. I WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT...IN LINE WITH THE AVERAGE DVORAK INTENSITY FROM THE FIX AGENCIES. THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN FORECAST PRETTY WELL BY THE GFS WHICH SHOWS FOUR-C MOVING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS SHOWS FOUR-C GETTING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROUGH... MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND RUNNING UP A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. I HAVE FOLLOWED THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED...FOUR-C IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEPRESSION FOUR-C IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT WITH ITS WINDS...IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. MOISTURE FROM FOUR-C MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT. PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW NOT ONLY ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C BUT ALSO OTHER FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM WFO HONOLULU...AFDHFO/FXHW60 PHFO...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE DEVELOPING WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 14.1N 165.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.5N 165.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.1N 164.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.7N 164.1W 25 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 163.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 161.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 25.0N 140.9E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 28.7N 142.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 160600UTC 33.7N 148.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 19KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 170600UTC 37.8N 160.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 140900 *** WARNING 140900. WARNING VALID 150900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 955 HPA AT 25.0N 140.9E CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 26.2N 141.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 28.7N 142.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04C WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 165.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 165.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.5N 165.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.1N 164.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.7N 164.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.4N 163.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.5N 161.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. AT 140600Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 625 NM SW OF PEARL HARBOR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.//