** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 24.4N 141.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 440KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 26.0N 141.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 31.2N 146.1E 960HPA 38M/S P+72HR 37.6N 154.3E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 140000 *** WARNING 140000. WARNING VALID 150000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 24.3N 141.2E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 25.7N 141.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 30.6N 145.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 35.3N 152.0E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 24.3N 141.2E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 150000UTC 25.7N 141.1E 90NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 160000UTC 30.6N 145.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 170000UTC 35.3N 152.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 24.4N 141.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 141.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 25.0N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 26.4N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 28.5N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 31.1N 145.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 35.3N 154.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 25 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 38.8N 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 141.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.// ** WTPA35 PHFO 140245 *** TCPCP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 500 PM HST FRI OCT 13 2006 AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN FAR SOUTH OF HAWAII. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...14.5 N...165.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPA45 PHFO 140245 *** TCDCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 500 PM HST FRI OCT 13 2006 DURING THE DAY 04-C HAS TURNED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAINED CONVECTION AND A DECENT CIRCULATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTION IS NOW MORE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. DVORAK FIXES FROM THE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 2.5 FROM HFO AND SAB...TO 2.0 FROM JTWC AND 1.5 FROM KGWC. SINCE I HAVENT SEEN ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PRESENTATION...WILL KEEP 04-C AS A 30KT DEPRESSION. NO BIG CHANGES IN OVERALL FORECAST REASONING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY SCATTERED...LENDING CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS FORECAST. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS PRETTY MUCH KEEP 04-C STATIONARY AND VERY WEAK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NOGAPS THEN LIFTS THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME SUCH A SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR PLAUSIBLE AND IS THE OUTLIER OF ALL THE GUIDANCE WE HAVE. GFDL WANTS TO MOVE IT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48HRS THEN SPEEDS IT UP AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. GIVEN THAT 04-C IS IN FACT MOVING AT THIS TIME...THE BEST GUESS FOR THE STEERING FLOW IS ROUGHLY THE 700-300MB LEVEL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MEANING 04-C SHOULD CONTINUE IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. QUITE A RARE OCCURRENCE FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...DONT SEE ANY EVIDENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND 04-C TO BRING THE SYSTEM TOWARD HAWAII...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING...SO EXPECT SHEAR TO START WORKING AGAINST THE SYSTEM. STILL FORECASTING 04-C TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEKEND...AFTER WHICH TIME ANY LOW LEVEL REMNANTS AND MOISTURE WOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED AND COULD BRING INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AND THE COMPLEX SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...PERSONS ACROSS HAWAII SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS FROM CPHC. ALSO REFER TO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM WFO HONOLULU... AFDHFO/FXHW60 PHFO...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON EXPECTED WEATHER ACROSS HAWAII FROM THE UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM 04-C REMNANTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.5N 165.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.2N 164.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 162.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.3N 160.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPA25 PHFO 140245 *** TCMCP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006 0300 UTC SAT OCT 14 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 165.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 165.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 165.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 164.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 162.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 160.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 165.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER NASH ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 140300UTC 24.7N 141.0E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 150300UTC 26.5N 141.4E 90NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 160000UTC 30.6N 145.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 170000UTC 35.3N 152.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 140300 *** WARNING 140300. WARNING VALID 150300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 24.7N 141.0E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 26.5N 141.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 140400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04C WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 165.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 165.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.2N 164.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.0N 162.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.3N 160.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET. AT 101400 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 591 NM SW OF PEARL HARBOR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 140513 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 166.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2006 14.4N 166.2W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2006 14.5N 165.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2006 14.8N 165.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2006 15.2N 165.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 16.9N 165.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2006 17.0N 164.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2006 18.2N 159.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.8N 110.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2006 14.8N 110.9W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2006 13.9N 109.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.10.2006 15.0N 107.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2006 15.1N 106.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2006 16.0N 105.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2006 18.1N 105.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2006 18.6N 104.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140513