** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 24.0N 141.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 440KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR N 5KM/H P+24HR 25.2N 141.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 27.1N 142.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 33.4N 147.0E 960HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 23.8N 141.1E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 24.2N 140.2E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 151200UTC 27.0N 141.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 161200UTC 33.1N 147.1E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 23.8N 141.1E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 24.2N 140.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 27.0N 141.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 33.1N 147.1E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 23.8N 141.1E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 24.2N 140.0E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 151200UTC 27.0N 141.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 161200UTC 33.1N 147.1E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 131500 *** WARNING 131500. WARNING VALID 141500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 23.8N 141.1E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 24.2N 140.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 131500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 23.9N 141.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 141.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.2N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.7N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 26.1N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 28.5N 143.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 34.6N 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 40.0N 161.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 141.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 131715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 8.8N 148.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2006 8.8N 148.3W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2006 8.7N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2006 9.7N 144.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2006 11.2N 144.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2006 12.9N 142.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 14.1N 142.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2006 14.8N 143.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2006 15.3N 143.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131715