** WTIN20 DEMS 130610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL,ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTIN20 DEMS 130610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL,ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 23.9N 140.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 440KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR NNW 5KM/H P+24HR 25.1N 140.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.9N 141.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 33.4N 147.0E 960HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 24.0N 140.8E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 24.4N 140.3E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 150600UTC 26.5N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 160600UTC 32.5N 146.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 24.0N 140.8E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 24.4N 140.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 26.5N 141.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 32.5N 146.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 130600UTC 24.0N 140.8E MOVEMENT N 4KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 140600UTC 24.4N 140.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 150600UTC 26.9N 140.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 160600UTC 32.9N 145.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTJP31 RJTD 130900 *** WARNING 130900. WARNING VALID 140900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 23.9N 140.9E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 24.4N 140.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 23.9N 140.9E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 24.4N 140.3E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 150600UTC 26.5N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 160600UTC 32.5N 146.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 130900 *** WARNING 130900. WARNING VALID 140900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 960 HPA AT 23.9N 140.9E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 24.4N 140.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 23.9N 140.9E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 24.4N 140.3E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 150600UTC 26.5N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 160600UTC 32.5N 146.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT =