** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 23.8N 140.6E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 420KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 140.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 26.9N 141.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 33.0N 146.6E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 23.9N 140.6E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 24.8N 140.1E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 150000UTC 26.7N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 160000UTC 33.3N 146.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 970 HPA AT 23.9N 140.6E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 24.8N 140.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 26.7N 141.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 33.3N 146.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 140.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 140.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.0N 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.2N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.5N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 25.6N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 31.4N 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 36.8N 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 43.2N 161.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 140.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 130000 *** T T T WARNING 05 AT 0000 13 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND WAS ESTIMATED DASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST UNLESS RE- INTENSIFICATION OCCURS THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 24.0N 140.7E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 24.6N 140.1E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 150000UTC 26.7N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 160000UTC 33.3N 146.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 970 HPA AT 24.0N 140.7E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 24.6N 140.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 130546 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 120.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2006 17.7N 120.2W WEAK 12UTC 13.10.2006 17.3N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 8.8N 148.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2006 8.8N 148.4W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2006 8.9N 147.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2006 9.9N 145.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2006 12.5N 139.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2006 13.6N 139.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2006 14.4N 142.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.10.2006 15.5N 143.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.10.2006 15.0N 143.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2006 15.2N 142.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.8N 105.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2006 15.8N 105.0W WEAK 12UTC 16.10.2006 16.0N 104.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2006 16.3N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2006 17.8N 104.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2006 18.1N 105.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2006 18.7N 106.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2006 19.5N 107.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2006 21.5N 106.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130546