** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 23.6N 140.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 420KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.8N 140.2E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 26.9N 141.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 32.3N 145.0E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 970 HPA AT 23.5N 141.0E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 24.7N 140.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 26.4N 141.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 30.7N 145.2E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 23.5N 141.0E GOOD MOVE NW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 24.7N 140.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 141800UTC 26.4N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 151800UTC 30.7N 145.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 121800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 121800UTC 23.5N 141.0E MOVEMENT NW 7KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 131800UTC 24.4N 140.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 141800UTC 26.6N 140.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 151800UTC 30.2N 142.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 23.6N 140.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 420KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.8N 140.2E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 26.9N 141.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 32.3N 145.0E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 970 HPA AT 23.5N 141.0E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 24.7N 140.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 26.4N 141.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 30.7N 145.2E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 23.5N 141.0E GOOD MOVE NW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 24.7N 140.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 141800UTC 26.4N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 151800UTC 30.7N 145.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 140.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 140.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.7N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.9N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 24.2N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.3N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 29.5N 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 35.4N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 41.7N 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 140.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 122032 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 PM PDT THU OCT 12 2006 ANY SCANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OLIVIA THIS MORNING HAS VANISHED WITH ONLY A NAKED SWIRL REMAINING ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1420 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 25 KT... AND THAT ESTIMATE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF OLIVIA BECOME ENTRAINED EASTWARD INTO THE LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF OLIVIA PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 17.5N 120.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 17.4N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 122033 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 2100 UTC THU OCT 12 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.4W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.4W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.4N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 120.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF OLIVIA PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPH RPLL 121800 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 1800 12 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATEL- LITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.9N 129.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTH- WEST SLOWLY AT 01 MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15 MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131800 15.6N 128.2E AT 141800 15.4N 127.3E AND AT 151800 15.2N 126.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANINLA PD= ** WTPN32 PHNC 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 120.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 120.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 17.4N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.3N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION LOCATED 17.5N 120.4W THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME- TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 122100 *** WARNING 122100. WARNING VALID 132100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 970 HPA AT 23.7N 140.8E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 24.8N 140.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 23.7N 140.8E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 24.8N 140.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 141800UTC 26.4N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 151800UTC 30.7N 145.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT =